As exclusively revealed by The Dealer on Friday night, former IFA president John Bryan has confirmed that he will not be contesting the European elections this coming May.

Bryan, who left office with the IFA last month, had long been expected to run for Fine Gael in the new “Ireland South” constituency. Fine Gael strategists were favouring a three person ticket in the south with Bryan joining Deirdre Clune from Cork and incumbent MEP Sean Kelly from Kerry.

However, after much deliberation, Bryan has conceded that the numbers are not there to successfully run with two others. Kelly is seen as the clear favourite to retain his seat in the south and with Clune almost certain to run, her ability to draw on a large population basis in Cork has strengthened her hand significantly. Bryan would have just one city (Waterford) at his disposal and would have to draw on mostly rural votes in counties Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow and Kilkenny.

With other parties likely to run multiple candidates in Cork, Fine Gael has been pressured into running Clune this time around despite her failure to deliver a seat in the last general election.

The public support of Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney for Clune (a fellow Corkonian) over Bryan cannot be underestimated too.

The MEP election boundary redraw in September last year also didn’t suit Bryan. Most had expected that counties Laois and Offaly would be part of a southern constituency but was moved into “Ireland North”. Should those two have been part of the South, it would have strengthened Bryan’s campaign significantly.

With less than a week to go before party’s selection convention the pressure is now on Fine Gael hierarchy to deliver a third candidate for the election. Current sitting TDs Andrew Doyle, John Paul Phelan (brother of fromer Macra president Seamus), Simon Harris and Government chief whip Paul Kehoe are believed to be part of the contingency list.

As reported by The Dealer, Doyle is thought to have an interest in the role but is also believed to be keen to be part of the Minister and Junior Minister reshuffle later in the year.

Bryan had long spoken about his election ambitions but first made it public at the National Ploughing Championships last September. Since then, Fine Gael had been planning a campaign with the South Kilkenny man. There are those that would argue that Bryan made his political ambitions known too early in a race that has yet to spark into life.

Traditionally European elections are sprints rather than marathons with previous successful candidates like Pat “The Cope” Gallagher having only officially declared on nomination deadline day before claiming a seat in the election itself.

This doesn’t close out Bryan’s election ambitions entirely, however. It is widely expected that current Environment Minister Phil Hogan will move to Brussels later this year to become Ireland’s European Commissioner. Should Hogan go, a by-election in Kilkenny would need to be called within six months after Hogan’s resignation as TD.

Bryan would be ideally placed to run for Fine Gael but would face stiff competition from Senator Pat O’Neill. Senator O’Neill is also from a farming background and would draw on a large voting base in the northern half of the county.

How the Dealer broke the story on Friday night: