Concerns about the Irish border have been deferred rather than fixed in the Brexit talks. The partial progress on the withdrawal agreement, announced on Monday and to be adopted formally by the European Council on 23 March, will see the UK negotiate a long-term trade agreement from scratch with the EU-27 and a no-change transition period operating until the end of 2020.

But the options of the UK staying in the single market, the customs union, or both, look far less likely. As a result, the threat remains that whatever long-term agreement emerges, to come into force, less than three years from now, will disrupt trade in agricultural products between Ireland and Britain, even if NI is somehow treated differently.

Last week, Irish-trained horses won 17 of the 28 races at Cheltenham. If you think Brexit has nothing to do with Cheltenham you are mistaken. Ireland, Britain and France, the three major countries in European thoroughbred racing and breeding, have long had a special deal within the EU’s regime of veterinary regulation. This deal ensures hassle-free day-to-day commerce in thoroughbreds between the three countries. A racehorse can depart its box in Tipperary at dawn, race in Epsom and be home by nightfall. The sales companies operate without quarantine delays, the trainers in NI race mainly in the Republic, while most horses entered at Downpatrick and Down Royal travel in the opposite direction. English trainers regularly enter, and win, races in France and Ireland as readily as if the tracks were on home ground.

Everybody in the industry has taken this happy state of affairs for granted. There has been a presumption that those in charge are not so careless as to damage an important industry unintentionally. But carelessness has been the hallmark of the UK’s approach to the Brexit negotiations to date.

Air travel

Several industries far more important than the thoroughbred business have been sounding the alarm. Unless the UK finalises a post-Brexit transition deal there could be chaos in air travel. Flights between the UK and the EU-27 countries, and by UK airlines in Europe, are authorised under the terms of EU directives. Even flights from the UK to the US are conducted under EU agreements. Some airlines have indicated that they will protect themselves by including a get-out clause in tickets sold for post-Brexit flights.

If the UK achieves a transition deal to follow its exit these problems will be deferred until the end of 2020 but they have not been permanently disposed of. Indeed, they have not been seriously addressed and there is little to celebrate in the progress made to date, aside from the agreement in principle to have a transition period for 21 months after Brexit day a year from now. A chaotic crash-out next year has been avoided it would appear, but the nature of the long-term trading relationship between Ireland and its largest partner remains highly uncertain.

For those exporting to the UK the likelihood is that the eventual trade deal, likely to be modelled on those already agreed with third countries such as Canada, will not see major changes. A deal which preserves zero tariffs is entirely possible and non-tariff barriers may also be avoided through the alignment of product standards. But the situation is very different for agriculture and food. There are no EU trade deals with third countries which facilitate anything approaching the freedom of trade which Britain currently obtains. There could be tariffs and serious non-tariff barriers, not just for the movement of animals but also for processed food products. This will affect exporters and Irish supermarkets’ reliance on UK suppliers.

The withdrawal and transition agreements have not been concluded and Monday’s press conference kicked a number of cans down the road, including the Irish border. The details have to be finalised by the autumn to provide time for ratification by the EU-27 countries and by the British and European parliaments. Only then can the serious bargaining commence on the EU’s free trade agreement with the UK. This will be the largest such agreement ever negotiated and experienced observers doubt that the time available is sufficient. To complicate matters, the UK must re-negotiate its trade arrangements with every other country in the world – there is no simple or automatic entitlement to trade under the umbrella of the World Trade Organisation, itself under pressure from protectionism in Donald Trump’s America.

For Irish agriculture, the risk of a crash-out next year has been averted, a reprieve rather than a deliverance.

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