What changes in farming political changes can bring.

Who now remembers the huge price increase in grain as Russia in 1972-73 swooped on the Chicago futures market and bought over 10m tonnes of US wheat and maize? Food prices across the world rose by 50%. The US learnt a bitter lesson and with the benefit of hindsight, over-reacted with a subsequent ban on soya exports.

But the lessons are more than just historical. Russia and its satellites were utterly committed to the idea of State ownership and management of agricultural land.

When the Berlin Wall fell and with it, communist management of the agricultural economy, the changes were breathtaking.

It took a while for Russian agriculture to adjust to the new market conditions but 2013 was the crunch year when Russia switched from being a net importer to a net exporter of grains.

At this stage, Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world with 19% to 20% of total global exports.

The EU used be the largest wheat exporter but Russia passed us out in 2016. The availability of fertilisers and modern agri chemicals, coupled with the critical factor of individual responsibility for farming decisions, has transformed Russian and east European agriculture.

I was heartened to hear at last week’s Alltech conference in Dunboyne, Teagasc’s Fiona Thorne draw attention to Ireland’s intrinsic competitiveness in cereal production due principally to our high yields. But she had an important qualification which we have repeated before in the Irish Farmers Journal – that this favourable cost base is dependent on not attributing market price to the land or labour used in the enterprise and, ideally, that debt levels are low.

There is little doubt that successful farmers in Russia have had access to land at close to zero prices – what is not so clear is how much scope there is to bring more good land into production and how much scope there is for significant yield improvements.

The former Soviet Union has had a fundamental effect in altering the world’s supply balance in the case of cereals. As can be seen from this year’s experience, weather can be the single biggest determinant of one-off price changes but the long-term trend is clear and it leaves little room for Irish complacency.

The Russian emergence of super grain competitiveness is not matched in the development of its grass – it is worth noting that the latest FAO/OECD report on agriculture forecast a continuing rise in the demand for dairy products on the world market.