The IFA has produced a series of estimations that analyse the effects convergence and eco schemes will have on farm payments in the next CAP.

The figures were set out by IFA director of policy Tadhg Buckley at an IFA CAP meeting in the north Leinster/Ulster region.

The analysis builds on work carried out by the Department of Agriculture.

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The IFA's work includes several assumptions about eco schemes which are not yet finalised and were excluded from the Department's work.

Buckley explained that the figures assume eco schemes will receive 25% of all direct payment funds and that all farmers will draw down an eco scheme at a flat-rate of €64/ha. The rate of convergence was set at 85%.

Figures

Under the IFA modelling, a farmer receiving an entitlement of €400/ha on 35ha in 2019 would see their payment drop from €14,000 to €11,743 in 2023.

This would be split into €9,487 in BISS, which will replace the BPS, and €2,257 through eco schemes.

Over the course of the CAP, convergence would reduce the BISS portion to €8,162, while the eco-scheme payment would remain at €2,257. This would leave a final payment of €10,419 in 2026.

At the other end of the scale, the IFA modelling shows that a farmer receiving the minimum entitlement value of €160/ha on 35ha would see their payment increase from €5,600 to €6,641 in 2023.

This farmer would receive the same eco-scheme payment of €2,257, while the BISS adds €4,384.

Convergence would increase the BISS portion to €5,625 and, along with the eco scheme, the 2026 payment would be €7,881.

Redistribution

Between both example farmers, someone receiving €300/ha on 35ha would see their payment decrease from €10,500 to €9,260 over the course of the CAP, under the IFA modelling.

The IFA estimations also considered how this farmer's payment has changed since 2014.

In 2014, the entitlement was worth €354/ha, yielding a total payment of €12,456.

This has fallen by 16% to the €10,500 figure in 2019. Over the course of the next CAP, it will fall by a further 12%, including an eco-scheme payment, to €9,261.

If the farmer did not receive an eco-scheme payment, the reduction in the next CAP would be 33%.

Buckley said the IFA is clear in its demands that eco schemes cannot lead to additional costs or reduced productivity on farms.