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The production of beef in the EU is expected to dip in 2019 following the high number of cows slaughtered last year during the summer drought.
The European Commission is forecasting a 1.3% decline in production linked to smaller breeding herds.
Last year, herds shrank by 1.3%, with 100,000 less beef cows in Ireland, the UK and France and almost 400,000 less dairy cows in the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and France.
Sharp drop
France saw a sharp drop in its beef herd caused by lower profitability and a reduction in live imports to Italy.
By contrast, there is no forecasted fall in production in Ireland.
This has been linked to a higher supply of calves from the dairy herd, as live exports were low in 2018.
Spain is expecting to maintain production also, with increased domestic demand for beef.
Poland will buck the trend of reduced production, as its expansion continues pulled by the recovery of exports.
Price
Looking at price, the second half of 2018 was dismal for beef producers, as increased supply led to lower prices (down 5% on the previous year).
Having stabilised at the beginning of 2019, the European Commission is predicting limited supply will put upward pressure on price.
While beef supply may be lower in 2019, it is also predicted there will be a corresponding decrease in consumption (from 11kg/person to 10.8kg/person).
This is not only as a result of the short-term lower meat availability, but also a long-term change in consumer preference.
The EU is seeing a gradual shift towards processed meat and out-of-household consumption.
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