Eastern Europe has been a watch point for 2022 wheat production for some months now due to dry conditions negatively affecting planting dates and establishment.

But, so far, it would seem that this has not yet been quantified in terms of its impact on winter cereal area in the greater European region.

Now it seems that there is yet another watch point after developing, as the recent MARS remote crop monitoring bulletin suggests that frost tolerance could be an issue in winter cereals in some countries around the Black Sea.

The MARS bulletin indicated that planting in most European countries was virtually complete by early November.

However, it also indicated that some Black Sea countries, such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, experienced a few weeks delay on normal planting dates and this could now have other implications.

Crops not sufficiently hardened

Above-average temperatures and near-average rainfall levels in November enabled favourable early crop development across much of central and northern Europe, as they did in Ireland.

However, parts of western Europe saw below-average temperatures and some areas had very dry periods that affected germination and planting decisions which affected early winter wheat development.

The report suggests that some fields have not yet even moved into the tillering phase.

In southeastern Europe, particularly around the Black Sea region, it turned quite cold towards the end of November. This slowed development in cereal crops that were planted later than normal.

Now there is concern, particularly around this region, that frost tolerance could be an issue. This concern also applies to many other parts of central and eastern Europe where conditions were broadly similar.

The MARS report suggests that frost tolerance is ‘weaker than usual’ in these regions (see Figure 1). This poses additional risk from frost during the winter dormancy period, with associated potential crop damage could limit crop potential.

Russia

Winter hardening is said to be stronger or more advanced in the majority of European Russia, which means that crops there are less likely to be damaged by frost.

But the southwest is more akin to eastern Europe, where damage is possible. However, it is still possible that frost tolerance may improve before any serious frost events occur.

Possible implications

With global wheat supply and demand balance being so tight, anything that could affect next year’s production and supply is important to the market. It is expected that prices will remain relatively high until this balance shows signs of easing.

Ukraine is a major wheat exporter and domestic production is important to global availability.

The recent USDA WASDE report suggests that Ukraine may export 24.2Mt of wheat in 2021/22, which puts them as the fourth-largest global exporter. So any reduction to production in Ukraine would be significant.

Romania is also a big wheat producer, producing 10.42Mt of EU27 production this season, so it is essential to EU supply.

Cold forecasted

The main reason why the MARS bulletin is highlighting this concern is because colder-than-usual conditions were forecast for these southeastern European countries and this could add to previous concerns about crop damage.

While it is certainly too soon to suggest that definite problems will arise, this has become an issue for markets to watch in the months ahead.

This is made even more important given that dry autumn conditions have already given rise to production concerns in Ukraine and Russia.

Full bulletin

You can read the full MARS bulletin by accessing the following QR code.

Photographing this QR code with a smart phone will open up a full copy of the MARS bulletin.