The west Cavan wing has been clipped from this constituency. It has also lost a seat and will look to seat four TDs instead of five. There are five current TDs looking to get re-elected as well as an ambitious young senator and a Garda whistleblower so Cavan-Monaghan is shaping up to be an intriguing battle.

The rural issues

A largely rural vote with the exceptions of Cavan town, Ballybay, Clones and Monaghan town, the Cavan Monaghan constituency will have a diverse voter base. Enormous strides have been made with regard to broadband connectivity in the region but the recent flooding has caused major concerns. The dredging of the Shannon has been spokes about liberally but few have mentioned the Erne which has caused havoc in the Ballyhaise, Stradone and Crossdoney areas of Cavan. The IFA and others have held meetings on flooding and it will be a serious issue on the doorsteps.

The farming issues

Incomes: Cavan and Monaghan are two of the most intensive farming counties in the country and are two counties under financial pressure. The greater Cavan area has 40% of the entire breeding sow numbers in the country and the pig sector has been under enormous pressure for the past year. Cavan and Monaghan are both strong dairy counties but are, generally, high input areas, dairy incomes are very much to the fore in the area.

Who will get elected?

Former agriculture minister Brendan is racing certainty for the first of the four seats as are Sinn Féin’s Caoimhghin Ó Caolain and Fine Gael minister Heather Humphreys. The fourth and final seat is the where the excitement enters in Cavan Monaghan.

Sinn Féin senator and protégé Kathryn Reilly had long been thought to be the favourite for the last seat. She has enjoyed a high profile in the Seanad and only narrowly missed out in the 2011 general election. However, stalwart Joe O’Reilly has come back into the reckoning in recent weeks and currently leads the way for the fourth seats.

The three main parties are all running two people on the ticket but only one of them will get a second successful candidate. The smart money (for now) is on Fine Gael but expect Reilly to poll very well for Sinn Féin.

Current TD Seán Conlan’s arrest over assault charges in 2015 and his subsequent decision to run as an independent will likely leave him outside the next Dáil. Garda whistleblower John Wilson will bring the anti-establishment vote but will it be enough to mount a serious challenge for that last seat?

The odds courtesy of Paddy Power

Brendan Smith (Fianna Fail) 1/25

Sean Conlan (Ind) 5/1

Mick McDermott (DDI-NCM) 100/1

Caoimhghin O'Caolain (Sinn Fein) 1/18

Niamh Smyth (Fianna Fail) 7/1

Michael Callaghan (Green Party) 100/1

Heather Humphreys (Fine Gael) 1/8

John Wilson (Ind) 14/1

Jimmy Mee (Ind) 100/1

Joe O'Reilly (Fine Gael) 4/11

Mike Durkan (Fianna Fail) 50/1