In 2015, high yields helped to hide the consequences of low prices on grain margins. This year may prove more challenging. Prices may be even lower than last year but it is not in anyone’s interest that that should happen. However, it seems unlikely that yield levels will rise to same heights either. There seem to be too many problems about to allow that to happen.

US visit

Earlier this week I popped into fields in the region where Kildare, Offaly, Westmeath and Meath are closest. Having been in the US with ITLUS for the previous two weeks, the effects of the frequent wet and the drop in temperature were uncomfortably evident. Some maize crops that were a vibrant green before we left are now 40 shades of green, indicating the range of growing stresses.

It is hardly surprising that there was no major county effect in such a tight region but there were definitely field effects. While the majority of crops looked nice and clean, others had a lot of late-season weeds coming through. Some of the problems with things like volunteer oats, wild oats and weeds were due to misses with herbicides. Others were more likely a consequence of incomplete control, inadequate rates, the awkward spring or weed resistance. It has been years since I saw a bad case of rough-stalk meadowgrass.

High winter rainfall

In winter wheat, take-all has become much more prevalent and evident. I saw significant problems in a few fields where either compaction or trach exacerbated the consequences of the high winter rainfall. All the fields I walked into had remained relatively free of septoria but there were signs that it was moving now. One crop had a little mildew present on stems, leaves and ears but at insignificant levels. Ear diseases were evident but still at low levels which could prove insignificant. Crops varied from watery ripe to milky.

Winter barley crops were well turned but they were definitely riper further east. Most crops still looked free of towering weeds but there were bits of foliar disease evident, but not at problem levels. There were bits of lodging in many fields but mainly on ins-and-outs and under trees. Many crops were tosses, however. There were bits of foliar disease visible but much of the vegetation was senescing in crops that were at cheesy ripe stage. Ear disease was very evident with perhaps 5% of poorly filled grains.

Advantage of fresh ground

Spring barley remains the most common crop in this region. Most crops look average but there were a few really good ones and I think they had the advantage of fresh ground. If so it clearly shows the benefit of either fresh ground or organic manures. There was no lodging evident but crops are not yet at their heaviest stage. Disease control looked to be excellent and there was no sign (yet) of ear blight. There ware bits of BYDV evident in all fields but not at a critical level. However, one field I visited was best described as poor. It looked to be planted late and may have hit a dry time post-emergence. It was late, poorly tillered and thin and had a lot of BYDV present.

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Supply levels dominate market sentiment

Looking more like average harvest output