The UK Prime Minister signed the Brexit withdrawal deal in Brussels on Sunday but was widely criticised in Parliament on Monday from all sides. Such is the hostility among MPs towards the withdrawal agreement, it appears momentum is growing for a new softer version of Brexit, referred to as a “Norway plus.” A broad coalition seems to be forming around this idea with its main common interest being a huge dislike of the present withdrawal agreement with its controversial Irish backstop.

The ideal of a “Norway plus” gained traction when Jeremey Corbyn, leader of the main opposition party, Labour, invited the PM to come back to the House of Commons with a plan B customs union and single market arrangement. At the same time, he was emphasising that there was no way his party would be persuaded to support the current withdrawal agreement that the PM signed in Brussels on Sunday.

Unlikely coalition developing

If there is tentative Labour support for the ideal of an alternative Brexit, plan B or Norway plus, then it gives the idea of something different to the withdrawal agreement gaining some momentum. There are estimates that up to 90 Conservative MPs, and most of the other parties, will vote against the agreement on 11 December. All but the most optimistic of the PM’s supporters are accepting that there is little chance of her winning on 11 December and after that anything is possible.

If the market has not already discounted this possibility, there could be a sufficient collapse in the stock market and run on the pound that would persuade enough MPs to go with the deal on a second attempt. Alternatively, the government could fall, though that is less likely with the fixed-term parliament legislation or there could be a second referendum which is loudly campaigned for by those who never wanted to leave the EU in the first place. If none of these were to prevail, then an accidental no-deal Brexit is a real possibility but if this was looking likely, don’t rule out the possibility of the withdrawal date of 29 March being pushed back.

What would “Norway plus” look like?

Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are outside the EU but form a European Economic Area (EEA) which trades with the EU as part of the single market, meaning they are signed up to the four freedoms of people, capital, goods and services. They are not members of the customs union, which means they are aligned with the EU on regulatory standards but not tariffs. Norway, for example, imposes penal tariffs on food imports that prevents the value of their domestic agricultural production being undermined.

This is where the “Norway plus” comes into play. If the UK was to accept the Norway model, that would give regulatory alignment for the UK with the rest of the EU. If they added customs union alignment to the regulatory alignment, then the UK would have the softest Brexit possible (as suggested by the Labour party leader). This wouldn’t be what the most hardline Brexit campaigners would want but given what is signed up to doesn’t come near their expectations either, this would be one way of thwarting the PM’s plan.

What’s in it for May’s opponents?

The basic attraction is that it isn’t the withdrawal agreement complete with the backstop. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) MPs are opposed to it because it gives special conditions to Northern Ireland to trade with either the UK or EU equally under the backstop. They want Scotland included in that deal but that isn’t available from the EU. The 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs are opposed to this deal but because of the special status it confers on Northern Ireland which would make it different from the rest of the UK if the backstop was enforced. By Monday evening, there were media reports that a group of Conservative party cabinet ministers were considering this Norway plus model.

Path to solution

If the momentum continues to build for this model on a cross-party basis and the withdrawal agreement remains as unpopular as it seems then a whole new approach might come about even though it is very late in the withdrawal process to be looking at new options. Of course it is very possible that the EU would find a way of creating the space if it looked like an arrangement could be found that kept the UK closely aligned to the EU.

There would be problems, not least what would happen to the ability of the UK to control migration, the one clear win the PM had from the withdrawal agreement. Would the EU dig in and say that if the UK wants a version of the deal Norway has, the four freedoms are sacred? Alternatively, might they take the withdrawal agreement approach and allow the UK keep control of migration, which David Cameron wanted originally when he was PM. If he had secured that, perhaps he would have won the subsequent referendum.

Decisions needed

One thing is certain if this model was to become reality. It would be the complete solution for farmers across the island of Ireland for north-south and east-west trade and with the UK aligned to EU tariffs it would mean the value of the British market would be preserved as well, a win-win all round. It would disappoint the hard Brexit campaigners who envisaged the UK making trade deals outside the EU but when faced with the reality of the withdrawal agreement they may see this as no worse. Where would it leave the backstop? Would the Irish Government sign up to this as a long-term arrangement between the UK and EU, maintaining much of the status quo or insist on the withdrawal agreement given that is what the UK has signed up to? Using the economic rather than political lens, it is trade that serves farmers best in giving present levels of market access.