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Scotland’s trade in agri food and drink products would take a generation to recover in the event of the UK leaving the EU with no deal, Scotland Food and Drink chief executive, James Withers has told MPs.
At a hearing of the House of Commons Scottish Affairs committee in Glasgow on Monday, Withers said that no-deal wasn’t just a bad deal but a “nightmare scenario”.
He said that he found it really hard to see any future exporting foods like Scotch Lamb and Scotch beef under WTO rules as they are “at their most punitive on agri food products”.
Exports increase
Since 2007 exports of Scottish food and drink to Asian, Middle East and North American markets have increased by about 600%, 200% and 300% respectively, but it would take a generation for the food and drink industry to attain the same spread of markets as the whisky industry, Withers told the committee.
NFUS policy director Johnny Hall told the committee that if there were no deal, it would be “a case of battening down the hatches”.
He said that the industry was at the point of wanting to move away from reliance on agricultural support towards driving productivity and innovation in order to take advantage of new opportunities.
“That would be completely put into reverse; the reliance on agricultural support would increase significantly,” Hall said.
Viability
Farm businesses can still take steps to protect themselves, said Sarah Baker, strategic insight manager of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. She told the committee that the top 25% of producers could remain viable in a no-deal scenario and demonstrated “marginal gains” which less well-performing business could adopt, including understanding their market and “relentless” cost management.
Vet shortage
On Tuesday, the National Audit Office (NAO) warned that without a significant increase in UK veterinary capacity, Defra would be unable to process the increased volume of health export certificates if there were no deal. “If there are not enough vets, consignments of food could be delayed at the border or prevented from leaving the UK,” the NAO/Defra ‘Progress in Implementing EU Exit’ report said.
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