The date may be pushed back a couple of weeks, but the risk of a no-deal Brexit appears to have increased, as well as preparations for this eventuality.

Arising from last week's heads of state meeting in Brussels, it is clear that from the EU perspective it is now either the withdrawal agreement signed in November but rejected by parliament or UK departure on 12 April with no deal.

Frank description

The EU has today issued a press release with a very frank description of what a no-deal Brexit will look like.

“In such a scenario, the UK's relations with the EU would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation.

It could be that her [Theresa May] agreeing to leave might trigger enough support for the withdrawal agreement to get through on the third attempt

"The EU will be required to immediately apply its rules and tariffs at its borders with the UK.

"This includes checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms.

"Despite the considerable preparations of the member states' customs authorities, these controls could cause significant delays at the border.”

Border is inevitable

The line that jumps out from this is that the EU will be required to immediately apply its rules and tariffs at its borders with the UK.

Of course the only land border that the EU and UK share is on the island of Ireland.

WTO tariffs will stop imports into the EU of agricultural produce, though the UK approach will enable product flow out of the EU into the UK in all cases apart from sheepmeat, where full WTO tariffs would be applied.

Foot and mouth precedent

In political terms, that means a hard border on the island of Ireland, though there is no indication as to how this would be enforced.

There is a huge desire to avoid such a border, but clearly in a no-deal Brexit, the EU will move to protect its boundaries.

As for physical infrastructure, that also remains to be worked out.

Again, it is considered undesirable, but not impossible

At the time of the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, the Irish Government had mobile disinfecting patrols located at every crossing, including minor roads.

That, of course, wasn’t controversial or sensitive, as it was a national effort to eradicate a major disease.

Of course, the political situation in Westminster is so fluid that just about anything can happen, ranging from a no-deal to a revocation of Article 50 and the UK staying put.

The Prime Minister looks like she is coming to the end of her time in office and it could be that her agreeing to leave might trigger enough support for the withdrawal agreement to get through on the third attempt.

Farmers either side of the Irish border will be hoping that however it is achieved, a no-deal Brexit is prevented.