Last week, I talked about the short-term prospects for dairy farmers, vegetable growers, pig and poultry producers and tillage farmers in these strange and turbulent times.

That covers almost all the principal sectors of Irish farming, apart from beef and sheep production.

The thing is, beef and sheep producers account for the vast majority of Irish farmers.

I’m not sure if many people who aren’t close to farming are conscious of how dominant sheep and cattle farms are in this country. A little look at the figures, if I may.

Registered numbers

There are about 130,000 farmers registered as such with the Department of Agriculture. Dairy farming may account for most of the headlines surrounding Irish farming, but there are actually only 18,000 dairy farmers in the country.

There are fewer than 5,000 tillage farms, according to the 2021 national farm census.

There are about 300 pig farms and a similar amount of poultry units. The number of specialist vegetable and fruit farms can also be counted in the hundreds.

That leaves over 100,000 farmers whose main enterprise is sheep, beef cattle or a mixture of the two. These farmers range from smaller holdings run on a part-time basis to large operations, from hill sheep to cattle finishing units.

. Photograph by David Ruffles

And how do we evaluate their prospects? They’re starting from a place of vulnerability.

Average incomes among drystock farmers rarely break the €20,000 barrier. That’s why so many are part-time farming.

Of course, averages encompass the wide variety of farms I spoke of earlier, but many of the larger farms are reeling from the realisation that deep cuts in direct payments will affect them next year.

This cohort are also the most intensive and thus the most affected by soaring input prices.

Sheep sailing on serenely

Ireland's 30,000 sheep farmers are possibly less affected than most other sectors by the recent vast hikes in input prices. Most sheep farmers have comparatively lower usage of feed and fertiliser.

The other good news is that prices have been robust of late. It's been a couple of good years after decades in the doldrums.

We saw the opening of the US market this week for sheepmeat, a high value market.

The increasing focus on the Chinese market by Australia and New Zealand's sheep exporters leaves an opening for the Irish trade. Believe it or not, Ireland is the fourth-highest exporter of sheepmeat on the planet.

Brexit has reduced the competition to our primary market and the world's best highest-value market, the EU. The UK removing itself from the single market moved our main rival on the French market outside the tent.

So while fertiliser is prohibitive, the key is a good grazing season and good crops of silage and hay. It'll be dear, nearly double the cost of previous years, but if the quality is good, the hope is the cost will be borne.

And there may be some help on the way. There is still optimism that the Government will make some gesture of subvention for drystock farmers in the coming weeks.

If it's on a flat-rate basis for farmers of near average size or above, it will be a welcome support for the most economically vulnerable farmers.

Cattle paying their way

And what of the 70,000-odd farmers primarily who are either suckler or beef farmers? Again, they are waiting in hope of some support from Government.

Again, prices are at record levels. And, again, for now, things are, just about, manageable. The bills for silage get big quite quickly for cattle farmers and those bills will loom soon.

The bigger questions are a little down the line. There is reason to be genuinely concerned about next winter. And we need to put some contingency plans in place well in advance.

Finishing cattle is a dear business at any time, but winter finishing with grass and maize silage, grain, proteins and often beet in mixed rations is on another level altogether.

As things stand, it's hard to compute a price for steers, heifers or bulls that will leave a margin next winter, or even minimise losses to levels that can be sustained.

Processors are offering contracts to some of their customers, more than ever before, but will they be robust enough to cope with the pressure the system may find itself under?

Already we are hearing of consumer resistance to beef prices, particularly for prime cuts. This is happening both at retail outlets and in restaurants, it's being reported.

While these are only straws in the wind, they are a warning that needs to be heeded.

While finishers are a minority of cattle farmers, they are vital to the whole ecosystem. If they aren't ringside next autumn buying forward stores to finish through the winter months, there will be a direct knock-on effect on weanling prices.

Acid test

This could be the acid test for our beef processors. They have transformed their business model from the intervention markets, third country exports utterly dependent on export refunds and the British trade.

Now, Irish beef is a prime product, gaining market share in the most lucrative markets across Europe and beyond. But trust between farmers and factories is brittle. It's less than three years since we witnessed blockades and court injunctions.

If we are to maintain a future, farmers, processors and Government must work more closely than ever before. The old fable of the frog and the scorpion must be cast aside in favour of a partnership of co-dependent co-operation.

If we can survive the current cycle, there is reason to be optimistic. We have been told for years that consumers couldn't bear higher food prices.

The hope must be that when this high tide recedes, that a new watermark can be established for farmgate prices for beef and lamb.

We shouldn't need all of today's prices, but a relatively small increase from the old base, passed back to the primary producer, would be transformative.

But first, let's plot a course through the next 12 months. For everyone.