The passing of April marks a watershed for spring planting dates, with inevitable consequences for grain production and straw availability for the coming harvest. Most farmers cannot remember a planting season that has been so late.
While one can argue that spring has been late since about early April, it is only as we pass into May that the chances of nature being able to compensate for late planting seem very unlikely. Nature might still compensate for late planting, but the chances of this gets increasingly fragile as sowing moves into May.
There are no certainties, but there are probabilities. And probability suggests that spring wheat is not a runner at this point, unless it is destined for wholecrop and even then it is questionable.
The same could be said of oats. But if either of these crops carried a significant price premium, they might be considered.
Beans are no longer a runner in my book, but I know that some growers will still plant. This could be especially important for seed crops. It is important that the whole industry does all it can to help secure native seed availability, as imported seed carries a risk of new problems.
This leaves me with spring barley, fodder crops and fallow as the realistic options. Straight fallow is the last thing I would do. If it must be fallow, I would put in some sort of cover crop to help the ground long-term.
This could be something for grazing, like a catch crop or possibly even grass. A growing crop is still the best way to remove water from the ground and it will help structure also.
Fodder crops
Many more growers are now talking about fodder crops. While this might still be much less than 10,000 additional hectares, they will represent land that is not growing cereals, with implications for straw and grain availability.
Neither maize nor beet might be called late yet, but I would need to be certain of my market before opting for either.
Maize brings additional questions. Plastic availability appears to be tight, but the crop can still be sown in the open on good sites, with early to medium maturing varieties. Early maturing and good starch content are critical variety characteristics when sowing in the open.
Even if you have access to plastic, it may make more sense to use medium to late varieties, depending on your location and field. Regardless of using plastic or not, the choice of variety should be made on a field and location basis.
You need to be sure of producing good cobs when selling maize. Plastic is an important insurance for most sites to get a timely harvest and good cob fill.
Perhaps the most important thing with fodder crops is to have a real market. Any grower without a customer could end up collapsing the market while trying to dispose of such crops.
While Teagasc, co-ops and merchants are helping to match up growers and buyers, if the buyer can default, it is the grower who will carry the can. Put an arrangement in place that will lock down any agreement.
Spring barley
Malting barley would be my big concern now. There are so many specifications to be met that drive conflicting husbandry decisions. Yield, protein content, ear number, screenings, etc, must all be considered in husbandry as they can all affect profitability.
With feed barley, you can fertilise and hope for the best on yield. Having to hold back on nitrogen could bring even higher penalties with later planting, but if yield is to be lower you need less nitrogen.
When opting for feed barley, my first issue is seed – is it still available? Personally, I would ease back on seeding rate in the face of lower yield potential. Lower yield potential means that I have to make savings somewhere.
Seedbed quality is still paramount and if I put adequate P and K, along with additional nitrogen into the seedbed or down the spout, I should still get adequate tillering if the year turns out to be favourable.
Again, with lower yield a probability, I would opt to reduce the total N rate by cutting back 15kg to 20kg N/ha on the amount applied at early emergence, relative to a normal year.
I will target early weed control in the hope that I can save a little on the rate to kill small weeds, but the timing will coincide with aphicide application and BYDV control as the risks are greater now. Later planting normally means higher risk.
Wild oat control cannot be ignored where it is necessary. Fungicide usage will be necessary, but I will be paying heed to Teagasc advice on timing and rates.
The big challenge on spring barley is a judgement on yield and crop value – grain and straw prices. Many would say that barley is unlikely to carry a price premium over wheat into next harvest, but it is still likely to be scarce globally.
So we must be careful not to expect very high prices as a justification for input expenditure.
Straw is likely to be in strong demand, given the lower grain acreage and absence of carryover. Already I hear people talking about €12 per 4x4 bale but why not €15? Indeed why not €30/bale?
The price of baling has been sneaking up and with a baling cost of €3.50/bale, the straw value is only €11.50 or €115/ac for a 10-bale crop. So at €15/bale, straw is still much less than a tonne an acre and higher yields mean more potash offtake.
Key points
Better weather has enabled a lot of planting to be done in the past week.It would not seem to make sense to plant beans, wheat or oats at this point, unless there is a big premium involved.Fodder crops may be an option if there are genuine customers.Look for production cost savings to help offset yield reduction.
The passing of April marks a watershed for spring planting dates, with inevitable consequences for grain production and straw availability for the coming harvest. Most farmers cannot remember a planting season that has been so late.
While one can argue that spring has been late since about early April, it is only as we pass into May that the chances of nature being able to compensate for late planting seem very unlikely. Nature might still compensate for late planting, but the chances of this gets increasingly fragile as sowing moves into May.
There are no certainties, but there are probabilities. And probability suggests that spring wheat is not a runner at this point, unless it is destined for wholecrop and even then it is questionable.
The same could be said of oats. But if either of these crops carried a significant price premium, they might be considered.
Beans are no longer a runner in my book, but I know that some growers will still plant. This could be especially important for seed crops. It is important that the whole industry does all it can to help secure native seed availability, as imported seed carries a risk of new problems.
This leaves me with spring barley, fodder crops and fallow as the realistic options. Straight fallow is the last thing I would do. If it must be fallow, I would put in some sort of cover crop to help the ground long-term.
This could be something for grazing, like a catch crop or possibly even grass. A growing crop is still the best way to remove water from the ground and it will help structure also.
Fodder crops
Many more growers are now talking about fodder crops. While this might still be much less than 10,000 additional hectares, they will represent land that is not growing cereals, with implications for straw and grain availability.
Neither maize nor beet might be called late yet, but I would need to be certain of my market before opting for either.
Maize brings additional questions. Plastic availability appears to be tight, but the crop can still be sown in the open on good sites, with early to medium maturing varieties. Early maturing and good starch content are critical variety characteristics when sowing in the open.
Even if you have access to plastic, it may make more sense to use medium to late varieties, depending on your location and field. Regardless of using plastic or not, the choice of variety should be made on a field and location basis.
You need to be sure of producing good cobs when selling maize. Plastic is an important insurance for most sites to get a timely harvest and good cob fill.
Perhaps the most important thing with fodder crops is to have a real market. Any grower without a customer could end up collapsing the market while trying to dispose of such crops.
While Teagasc, co-ops and merchants are helping to match up growers and buyers, if the buyer can default, it is the grower who will carry the can. Put an arrangement in place that will lock down any agreement.
Spring barley
Malting barley would be my big concern now. There are so many specifications to be met that drive conflicting husbandry decisions. Yield, protein content, ear number, screenings, etc, must all be considered in husbandry as they can all affect profitability.
With feed barley, you can fertilise and hope for the best on yield. Having to hold back on nitrogen could bring even higher penalties with later planting, but if yield is to be lower you need less nitrogen.
When opting for feed barley, my first issue is seed – is it still available? Personally, I would ease back on seeding rate in the face of lower yield potential. Lower yield potential means that I have to make savings somewhere.
Seedbed quality is still paramount and if I put adequate P and K, along with additional nitrogen into the seedbed or down the spout, I should still get adequate tillering if the year turns out to be favourable.
Again, with lower yield a probability, I would opt to reduce the total N rate by cutting back 15kg to 20kg N/ha on the amount applied at early emergence, relative to a normal year.
I will target early weed control in the hope that I can save a little on the rate to kill small weeds, but the timing will coincide with aphicide application and BYDV control as the risks are greater now. Later planting normally means higher risk.
Wild oat control cannot be ignored where it is necessary. Fungicide usage will be necessary, but I will be paying heed to Teagasc advice on timing and rates.
The big challenge on spring barley is a judgement on yield and crop value – grain and straw prices. Many would say that barley is unlikely to carry a price premium over wheat into next harvest, but it is still likely to be scarce globally.
So we must be careful not to expect very high prices as a justification for input expenditure.
Straw is likely to be in strong demand, given the lower grain acreage and absence of carryover. Already I hear people talking about €12 per 4x4 bale but why not €15? Indeed why not €30/bale?
The price of baling has been sneaking up and with a baling cost of €3.50/bale, the straw value is only €11.50 or €115/ac for a 10-bale crop. So at €15/bale, straw is still much less than a tonne an acre and higher yields mean more potash offtake.
Key points
Better weather has enabled a lot of planting to be done in the past week.It would not seem to make sense to plant beans, wheat or oats at this point, unless there is a big premium involved.Fodder crops may be an option if there are genuine customers.Look for production cost savings to help offset yield reduction. 
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