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With reports suggesting that around two-thirds of Europe’s fertiliser production capacity has been halted due to soaring gas prices, it adds to a real sense of uncertainty about what farmers will have to pay in 2023 to secure supplies.
At present, CAN is trading around the £700/t mark, with compounds in the region of £750/t. It is impossible to give definitive advice on what farmers should do, but if there is cash available, it might be wise to hedge against even higher prices next spring by dipping into the market now and securing enough to grow a first cut in 2023.
While a dry summer has meant most farmers have been able to make good use of whatever grass has been grown, and thereby reduce fertiliser inputs, cutting back on nitrogen (N) is likely to have implications into the autumn.
Hungry fields
A lot of fields already look hungry, and there is a real danger that grass will have disappeared by the end of September – a six- to seven-month winter will do nothing for costs on livestock farms.
As a result, it is still worth considering applying a light dusting of N within the next week, especially on drier parts of the farm.
A study commissioned by AgriSearch in the spring, undertaken by scientists at AFBI, highlighted that at a CAN price of £600/t, at least 7.4kg of grass dry matter (DM) per kg of N applied must be grown to achieve an economic response.
The average response normally achieved in August is 24kg of grass DM, so if growing conditions are reasonably favourable over the next month, there is an economic argument for applying some N now.
However, that all depends on the grass being well utilised (ideally in a rotational system) and soil pH levels being above 6. If fields are below target for pH, keep the fertiliser in the bag, and ring a lime supplier instead.
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