Grain Trends: more positive US yields affecting prices

On a positive note wheat, maize and oilseed rape prices finished up last week. All markets were in the green on Friday evening 5 July.

This week saw markets rebalance and lose some of the recent gains.

The market prices for grains and oilseeds were reacting to more positive soundings on US crop conditions.

After markets closed, the USDA reported improvements in both US maize and soybean condition scores, despite heavy storms.

As of 7 July, 68% of both crops were rated as good or excellent, up from 67% a week earlier.

The price of French wheat for December climbed €4/t last week to €235/t on Friday 5 July.

On Tuesday evening, it closed at €233.25/t.

The US wheat harvest is progressing quicker than usual. Over 60% of both corn and soybean crops are reported to be in good or excellent condition.

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reported that Sovecon revised its 2024/2025 wheat production estimate to 84.1m tonnes, up from 80.7m tonnes.

Brazilian wheat

Brazil is reported to be aiming to be self-sufficient in wheat in the coming year.

The country exports large amount of soybeans and maize. It produces millions of tonnes of wheat, but still needs to import. Argentina is a big supplier of wheat to Brazil.

Oilseed rape

French oilseed rape for November hit €514.50/t on Friday evening. It climbed €28.50/t from the previous Friday. On Tuesday evening this week, it closed at €490/t.

Oilseed rape condition is not as good as usual in many countries. Soybean markets were also on the rise due to the potential impact of drought.

Planting survey

Last week, the AHDB reported the lowest cereal and oilseed rape areas in Britain in two decades.

The AHDB’s planting and variety survey estimated that oilseed rape area is down 21% to 307,000ha. Winter wheat is estimated down 9% to 1.551m ha.

Winter barley was also estimated down by 11%, while spring barley area was estimated up 18%. Oats area was also estimated up by 9%.

The AHDB stated that winter crop conditions remain poor, with 14% reported to be in poor or very poor condition.

Malting barley

The malting barley price for Boortmalt growers is currently an average of €264.14/t, based on an average from mid-April to mid-September. The FOB Creil price for Planet used to calculate the average dropped last week. It fell from €268/t to €264.25/t on Friday 5 July.