The UK parliament begins a five-day Brexit debate that will finish with a vote next Tuesday, 11 November, on the withdrawal agreement signed off by the prime minster in Brussels on 25 November. This vote will decide if the UK parliament, who have the final say, will accept or reject the withdrawal agreement.

Doesn't have the numbers

At this moment it looks extremely unlikely that the withdrawal agreement will be accepted. The conservative government faces something of a mutiny of its own MPs with anything up to 100 likely to oppose the agreement. The government, who depend on Northern Ireland’s 10 DUP MPs for a majority in parliament have already lost their support on this vote.

Another crisis

Before the debate has even started, there is another crisis brewing in Westminster for under-pressure prime minister, Theresa May. The reason is because of her reluctance of revealing legal advice the government has received from the attorney general on the future operation of the withdrawal agreement in relation to the Irish backstop and continued participation in a customs alignment. MPs are demanding access to this advice which is being refused. This thinking is that the advice will confirm the only way to avoid the Irish backstop coming into play is by the UK remaining aligned with the EU on customs and not able to go solo on trade deals.

Best for farmers

Of course this would be good news for Irish exports to Britain and even within the UK, there is no great enthusiasm among farm leaders for the UK heading off on the trade deal campaign. Their fear is that with the UK being a huge met importer of food, the government would readily grant generous access to the UK market for agri produce, which would undermine the value of domestic production.

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