COFORD climate statements at odds with Government's planting targets

Last week’s findings of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that it is “almost inevitable” that temperatures will rise above 1.5°C, which is the tipping point when climate change may become irreversible.

On the face of it Ireland will play its part in climate change mitigation if the Government’s Climate Action Plan is implemented. The plan is ambitious but, like Ireland’s pledge to increase renewable energy and afforestation, performance falls well behind actions.

The plan commits Ireland “to halving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050 at the latest” and identifies afforestation as “the single largest land-based climate change mitigation measure available to Ireland”. Yet the 2021 plan provides no annual afforestation target unlike the 2019 plan which aimed to achieve “an average of 8,000ha per annum of newly planted forest, and sustainable forest management of existing forests” providing 2m t of CO2 equivalent (eq) cumulative abatement.

Ag Climatise

The following year Action 14 of the Department’s own plan, Ag Climatise: A Roadmap towards Climate Neutrality, also aimed to “increase afforestation levels to 8,000ha per year”. As a result 8,000ha is generally the acknowledged annual afforestation programme required to help Ireland to achieve carbon neutrality.

This rate of planting, while four times higher than the current programme, is deemed far too low in two reports on the contribution of Irish forests to climate change mitigation. Dr David Styles, NUI Galway, believes 20,000ha needs to be planted while COFORD, the Department’s research and advisory body, recommends a far more ambitious afforestation programme than outlined so far in Government proposals. The Irish Farmers Journal will feature the findings of Dr Styles next week.

COFORD’s publication Forests and wood products, and their importance in climate change mitigation acknowledges the crucial importance of afforestation in climate change mitigation but goes well beyond the 8,000ha planting rates proposed in the 2019 Climate Action Plan and the Department’s own climate roadmap. COFORD proposes increasing annual afforestation rates to 16,000ha.

“It must be said that increasing afforestation rates above current low levels ranging between 2,000ha and 3,000ha per year, to a level approaching 16,000ha per year will prove to be extremely challenging, but there is little doubt this level of uptake is required, along with deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, to move towards the carbon neutrality goal,” maintain the authors of the COFORD document.

“Increasing the level of afforestation, in line with the forest policy aspiration of approaching a forest cover of 18% in the latter half of the century, entails an effective doubling of the afforestation rate [in the 2019 Climate Action Plan]. Extended over three decades to 2050, this level should provide 4.8m tonnes of net carbon dioxide removals on afforested land by mid-century, thereby making a substantial contribution to the attainment of the carbon neutrality goal.”

Advantages

The statements outline Ireland’s advantages in growing forests because “a combination of an oceanic climate and suitable soils means that some forests can begin to reach commercial maturity three decades after establishment, considerably shorter than elsewhere in Europe”. COFORD also acknowledges the role of all forest types – broadleaf, conifer, and mixtures – “in contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation, ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation”.

The final statement takes into account Ireland’s international obligations in climate change mitigation: “COFORD concludes that a greatly expanded afforestation programme reaching some 16,000ha per year over the coming three decades is necessary for Ireland to approach carbon neutrality in land use by mid-century in accordance with the Paris goals.”

Ireland’s and the EU’s stated goal is to reduce GHG emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality across all sectors by 2050.

COFORD also examines the role of wood as an efficient medium in its own right and also in displacing fossil-based material, especially in the construction sector where the carbon footprint is high.

Quoting the UN Environment Programme and the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction 2020 report, it states: The manufacture and use of construction products represent 11% of global CO2eq emissions,with 8% from cement production alone. To be on track to get to net-zero carbon building stock by 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2030 direct building CO2 eq emissions need to fall by 50% and indirect building sector emissions by 60%.”

Although Ireland has a masonry rather than a wood culture, the COFORD authors believe there is huge potential for homegrown timber in construction as volumes of timber are forecast to almost double by 2035.

“Using estimated production data for the domestic forest products sector, the total displacement effect of domestic forest products is estimated at 3.8 Mt CO2eq per annum,” the report states.

“COFORD and David Styles should be complimented in highlighting the importance of achieving viable and ambitious afforestation programmes that will help Ireland achieve its climate change goals,” said Pat O’Sullivan, technical director of the Society of Irish Foresters. “Achieving these planting levels will be a major challenge given current afforestation levels but a positive first step would be their incorporation in the Government’s Climate Action Plan and an updated Department roadmap towards climate neutrality”.

So far there is no indication from either Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue or Minister of State Pippa Hackett that the COFORD afforestation rates will be adopted in the Government’s Climate Action Plan or feature in their own Department’s climate policy.

Invitations have been issued by the Department to submit application forms (Form As) for the 2022 Forestry Knowledge Transfer Group (KTG) scheme. Applications to establish and run KTG courses are invited from forestry groups, forestry companies and individual foresters.

Once approval is issued by the Department, successful applicants will then invite forest owners to take part in the KTG courses they are running. Completed applications should be emailed by 25 April to ForestryKTG@agriculture.gov.ie, which is also the email address for queries about the scheme.