The two big players to watch in terms of milk supply outside of the EU are the US and New Zealand (NZ).

We know the EU story – regulation and policy are forcing supply downwards and so far milk price has lifted.

Milk supply in NZ was lower last year (2022) than the year before.

In December, milk supplies in NZ amounted to 2.6 million tonnes. This is down 0.5% compared with the same month last year. In various areas, there are major rainfall problems, including around the city of Auckland on the North Island.

To what extent this causes dairy farmers problems is difficult to estimate, but tillage farmers are in bother.

In 2022, the total supply amounted to 21.0 million tonnes. Compared with 2021, this is a contraction of 3.81%.

The US

Milk production in the United States (US) has set a new record in 2022, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is one of the reasons why commodity dairy product price is going down.

Overall, US dairy farmers produced 102.8 million tonnes last year. This is an increase of 0.2% compared with the previous year. The increase is slowed down by the fact that the supply in the first half of 2022 was below 2021 levels. States where production clearly increased are Texas and New York.

Milk price down

The fact that production growth slowed down in December is probably due to the fact that milk prices are moving downwards.