Will it pay to feed meal this autumn?

With base milk prices hitting the mid-40c/l mark and expected to rise further, farmers are asking what is the optimum level of meal to be feeding this autumn.

The context is that milk prices are historically high. At this time back in 2021, base milk prices were around 35c/l while feed costs were around €270 to €280/t, approximately €20/t to €30/t lower than they are now.

The question is, is there extra money to be made by feeding more meal this autumn? There is no easy answer to this as it depends on a number of factors, but let us look at a few scenarios;

1 Feed for yield

In this scenario the farmer has the right stocking rate for the herd so should be able to build up grass covers by feeding 2kg or 3kg of meal per cow in the autumn. Let’s also presume that the farmer has enough winter feed. What would happen if the farmer fed an extra 2kg of meal per cow in order to capitalise on the milk/meal price dynamic?

In order to get a return from this, there needs to be a good response to concentrate feeds. At farm level, the typical response to concentrates in late lactation is between 0.5kg and 0.75kg of milk for every 1kg of meal being fed. This response can only come if the cows’ energy intake increases either by eating more feed or higher quality feed.

If concentrates are costing say €300/t that is €330/t or 33c/kg on a dry matter basis. At a base milk price of 45c/l and presuming good fat and protein per cent a received price of 55c/l on average in September and October is likely for many farmers.

If the cows respond by producing 0.5kg more milk in response to being fed an extra 1kg of meal the return will be 28c in milk after spending 33c on the meal – a loss of 5c. If the cows respond by producing 0.75kg more milk in response to being fed 1kg more meal the return will be 41c after spending 33c on the meal – a gain of 8c.

If the exercise is carried out on a 100 cow herd being fed an additional 2kg of meal the sums would look like this: There would be an additional 12t DM of meal purchased in September and October costing €3,960. This is in addition to whatever meal is normally fed in these months, probably another 12t to 18t of meal.

If the response to the meal is 0.5kg of milk, then the cows would produce another 1l of milk per day which is 60l over the two months or 6,000l for the 100 cows. At a milk price of 55c/l, that is worth €3,300 for the farm, or a loss of €660.

If the response is better at 0.75kg of milk, then the cows would produce another 1.5l of milk or 9,000l for the farm across the two months or €4,950 for the farm, a gain of €990 for the farm.

A couple of points; firstly, farmers won’t know in advance what the response will be so it could be profitable and then again it may not be. Secondly, the response to concentrates is not linear and as these assumptions are based on additional concentrates, the response may not be the same if feeding 5kg as feeding 3kg of meal. Another thing to note is that because yields are lower this year, the response to meal may not be as high as could be expected.

Finally, the gain from the higher milk price is real, whether you feed extra meal or not. By focusing on providing the best quality grass available, cows will milk better and the return will be higher.

2 Selling culls early

It is common practice for farmers who are highly stocked to sell their cull cows in early autumn. This reduces the demand for grass and makes it easier to build up autumn grass covers.

The cull cows are generally the empty cows, high cell count cows or lame cows. Reducing the herd by 15% to 20% in say early September will reduce the amount of milk being sold, but also the amount of meal that is to be fed.

In a 100 cow herd, if cows are eating 18kg DM of grass and 15% of the herd is culled that is saving 270kg of grass per day. If 20% of the herd was culled, that would save 360kg of grass per day. Across the remaining cows, that would be equivalent to an extra 3.2kg DM/cow if 15% of the herd was culled, or an extra 4.5kg DM/cow if 20% of the herd was culled.

Milk sales would also be affected and presuming cows produce 15l/day on average between September and October, that is 900l of foregone milk sales per cow. At an assumed milk price received of 55c/l for September and October, that is €495 in milk sales for September and October.

If the farmer decided that they weren’t going to cull early this year, then the sums would need to be looked at based on each of the cows not culled being on a full concentrate diet. This is because it is presumed that the only reason the cows would be culled early in the first place is because the farm would be tight for grass.

So if the cows eat 18kg DM of meal per day during September and October, that’s a total of 1,080kg DM of meal. At a 50:50 blend of palm kernel and dairy concentrates, the ration price would be approximately €250/t or €275/t DM. This would mean a total cost of €297 for meal in September and October.

This is not suggesting that the cows that would be culled will be on a 100% meal diet, it is suggesting that if these cows weren’t culled the farm would need to purchase an extra 1,080kg of meal for each cow not culled.

Based on the above presumptions, there would be a margin over feed of about €200/cow by retaining the cull cows for two extra months. This does not include the cost of labour, electricity or the lower cull cow value by selling later in the year which may erode the gain.

If keeping culls for longer, it’s important to note that the extra meal should be fed in order to ensure no change to grass supply. A bad outcome would be to keep the culls and end up not building enough grass and have to house the herd in mid to late October.

3 Short of fodder

Many farmers, particularly in Munster and south Leinster are experiencing a grass deficit as soil moisture deficits are pinching grass growth. On top of this, many farms are tight on silage so the last thing they want to be doing is feeding silage now that they need it for the winter.

Feeding higher levels of concentrates instead of silage is a real option but the thing to note is that in order for the meal or silage to be effective, cows must be on a 12-hour allocation to ensure they eat less grass. Otherwise, the total intake will increase. Palm kernel is a good option where grass is tight and can be bought for around €220/t which is €242/t DM or 24c/kg DM. If grass silage costs €40/bale and there is 200kg DM in a bale, that works out at 20c/kg DM. At €50/bale, silage is costing 25c/kg DM which is closer to the cost of palm kernel. Relative to dairy concentrates, buying silage will be a cheaper option.