So here we are as we approach harvest with wheat prices at roughly the same level as they were before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in dollar terms.

There has been a huge amount of hype about wheat and while Ukraine is an important producer and exporter, we have tended to overlook the pivotal importance of Russia itself as a producer and exporter.

We can forget that before the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia’s agriculture system was chaotically inefficient, and it was one of the major importers of cereals in the world.

This has been totally turned on its head in the last 30 years with the privatisation of farming and the adopting of modern technology. So Russia is now the biggest single wheat exporter.

While disrupted in places by the war in general, it is becoming apparent that given the size and resources of many of Ukraine’s large farms things will be more or less alright.

Production

While production this year will be down, the harvest in Ukraine will be reduced by nothing like the panic and fears that were there in the late May period.

Not surprisingly, the operators of such farms are well capable of acquiring these enormous storage bags for wheat that are so common in countries such as Argentina where the climate is dry and the grain is harvested at low moisture.

This now seems to be what’s happening in Ukraine and, as the talks drag on under the United Nations auspices, it is clear that no country wants to be seen to deprive poverty-stricken nations access to food.

All the evidence would suggest that Russian wheat exports are proceeding as normal and that Ukrainian exports will also begin to flow.

Certainly there will be percentage reductions, but the panic about supply and availability is now seen to have been overdone.

Fertiliser does not have anything like the same emotional appeal and especially in the case of nitrogen, is much more closely allied to the price of gas rather than to the price of wheat or maize.

So far, there seems to have been no urgency in approaching the cost crisis that is going to affect EU farmers as they prepare for the 2023 crop.

We may have a false sense of security in Europe that we can take food self-sufficiency for granted but such complacency will be misplaced if the price and availability of fertilisers is not tackled with much more urgency than has been the case up to now.

No compromise

Meanwhile, as the climate change debate rages on and the contribution of the Irish livestock herd to global warming gets more airtime than is remotely warranted, we seem to have forgotten one of the pivotal conclusions of the Paris Climate Accord.

That food production should not be compromised by action to reduce greenhouse gases. This is precisely what we are seeing in Ireland. A return to some form of sanity is overdue.