This is a subscriber-only article
The European Commission has forecast that EU beef production is expected to fall by 1.1% this year, with a drop of 0.6% forecast for 2020.
In its latest short-term outlook for the EU beef sector, it said that in the first quarter of 2019 the EU beef kill was back by 1.4%.
The main factor in the fall in production was smaller breeding herds and lower numbers of store cattle in key beef-producing countries such as France, the Netherlands, the UK and Germany.
The anticipation of the UK leaving the EU and the impact it will have on Ireland, the Polish beef scandal and the sluggish market for live exports in Turkey all influenced the kill too.
Despite the fall-off in production, EU beef exports increased by 14.5% in the first four months of the year
The outlook said that despite the lower kill, in 2019 EU beef prices are 2% to 7% below last year’s prices and are also below the three-year average.
Statistics from the EU's Meat Market Observatory for the week ending 23 June 2019, show that prices are back across all categories.
Average EU heifer prices were back almost 5% year-on-year to €3.73/kg while steer prices were back by 8.3% to €3.78/kg.
Reduced consumption
The European Commission has forecast that beef consumption will fall in 2019 from 11kg to 10.8kg/capita.
Consumption is set to fall as a result of lower meat availability in the EU market, the Commission said, following several years of higher consumption supported by higher supply.
South America
In the first four months of 2019, the decline in imports from Brazil (-16%) and Uruguay (-8%) was not compensated by increased imports from Argentina (+8%). However, the additional protein demand in Asia is expected to result in an overall decrease of EU imports by 2% in 2019.
Exports
Despite the fall-off in production, EU beef exports increased by 14.5% in the first four months of the year, as a result of an increase of volumes to existing export partners, namely the Philippines, Bosnia and Israel.
The increase in imports was also helped by access to new markets - China.
The Commission has said that this is expected to continue, resulting in an increase of 15% in 2019 on a yearly basis.
The difficulties in the Turkish market continue to affect EU exports of live animals there, with other countries not filling the gap for demand. This is forecast to lead to an expected decline of live exports by 2% in 2019.
SHARING OPTIONS: