“One thing that is certain is that there is no certainty” – that was European Council of Young Farmers (CEJA) president Alan Jagoe’s take on the UK’s Brexit vote.

“I’d been in UK four times this year before the Brexit vote and each time I got a stronger belief they were going to leave,” he told those gathered at a Muskerry Macra na Feirme event in Co Cork entitled The Implications of Brexit on Irish Agriculture.

“However, a level of complacency had crept into the corridors of power so the actual result took many politicians by surprise,” he said.

“There was no referendum culture in UK, so they treated it like an opinion poll. As it stands the referendum has no statutory basis so it was an opinion poll.

“It is something their parliament must decide now, when to trigger Article 50. It may be 2018 at earliest.”

Irish perspective

He warned that the instability within the EU could see other member states’ patience tested and they could push the UK out: “There is a growing feeling that if there is continuing instability in the EU because of Britain indecisiveness in terms of setting a date to leave the EU, then other EU members could invoke Article 7, which could be used to push UK out.”

How the UK and EU engage once negotiations on leaving begin will have huge effects on the day-to-day relationship between Ireland and the UK.

With regard to the choices ahead, Jagoe said: “What model they go for post leaving is unknown. They could opt for any of the different economic deals the EU has with Norway, Switzerland or Turkey. They’re not overly positive but the Norwegian option is probably the most appealing from an Irish perspective.”

Subsidies

He said Europe is now beginning to realise the connection between both countries. The UK, in terms of value of trade, exports more to Ireland than Brazil, China, India and Argentina combined.

With regard to Irish farmers’ fears on the UK’s contribution to CAP funds, Jagoe said most of the UK money goes towards research, so it wouldn’t have a huge effect on single farm payments.

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