The number of beef animals nearing finishing age on Irish farms is significantly lower than at the same point last year, making a tightening of supply in factory-fit cattle likely in the coming months.

There are 119,649 fewer beef cattle on farms aged from 18 to 36 months of age compared to 12 months ago, latest figures from the Department of Agriculture show.

Comparing AIMS data from 1 September 2020 to the same date last year, there are 59,933 fewer cattle aged 18 to 24 months, 49,300 fewer aged 24 to 30 month and 10,416 fewer aged 30 to 36 months.

It was predicted at the start of the year that the shortfall would lead to a reduction in beef factory throughput to the tune of 40,000 to 50,000 head.

This has not yet materialised and the 2020 kill to the week ending 31 October was running 45,350 head higher than last year. Excluding the higher throughput of calves, the kill is still running 70,000 to 80,000 head higher than initially forecast.

Reports suggest this is partly driven by an increasing percentage of the national herd comprising Angus and Hereford crosses from the dairy herd that are being killed at a younger age. The cow kill is also running 12,213 head higher, stemming from dairy herd expansion.

However, a significant check in normal throughput should be expected at some stage over the next six to nine months due to the shortfall.

Numbers will recover in the longer term as there are an extra 74,250 beef cattle aged between six and 12 months and 17,282 more in the 12 to 18 months age category. This is due to increased dairy births and lower live exports of calves in 2020.