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Markets once again remained relatively flat over the past week in Europe and further afield, despite ongoing weather challenges.
Further news of weather disruption, such as snow in Canada and continued dry conditions in Australia, excited markets over the past week, but amounted to little in terms of movement.
The latest world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) was published last week and revealed no real surprises. Expected world wheat production is back by 2.1Mt, mostly due to concerns over the production of Australian wheat, down 1.5Mt, and Russian wheat, down 1Mt. Market movements were somewhat muted to this news, meaning that these losses may have already been priced in.
Within EU markets, wheat demand continues to decline, with non-EU maize imports up 10% on last year. This resembles 2008, where good maize crops out-performed poor wheat crops in terms of yields and competitive price. However, market dynamics have changed significantly since then. US maize production is also expected to be back by 1.3Mt due to reduced yield expectations. Locally, native prices also remained flat this week. Demand has slowed, which is in part due to settled weather and increased confidence of supply among purchasers. Price offers from within the trade are broadly similar to last week. Prices are around €218/t for wheat and around €217/t for barley.
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