Each week, we bring you crop production stories from around the world which are likely to affect international and domestic markets.

US harvest powers ahead

During the week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released another harvest report. It showed that the US harvest is progressing rapidly. At the time of its release (23 September 2018), 16% of the US maize crop was harvested compared with 10% in 2017 and 11% on average (2013-17).

Similarly for soya beans, harvest progress remains ahead of previous years at 14% complete, compared with 9% in 2017 and 8% on average (2013-17).

The AHDB reports that this is the fastest pace since 2012. Due to drought conditions and intense heat, US crops have been developing significantly faster than in previous years, with 72% of the maize crop having reached maturity by 23 September, 19 percentage points ahead of the 2013-17 average.

This trend is also replicated in the country's soya beans with 71% of plants surveyed by the USDA now dropping leaves, 11 percentage points ahead of last season and 14 points ahead of the 2013-17 average.

All go in Russia and Ukraine

Winter cereal planting has begun across Ukraine and Russia and improved conditions have increased optimism for next year’s crop.

Recent rain in key crop-growing areas across the two counties has alleviated some of the dry weather concerns.

Reuters reports that as of 24 September, Ukrainian farmers have sown 2.3m hectares of winter grains, or 32% of the forecasted area of 7.2m hectares. Area is anticipated to be down as they sowed 2.5m hectares on the same date a year earlier.

The yield potential of the winter grain harvest in both countries is hugely dependent on a favourable autumn sowing and warm weather the following spring.

While winter wheat accounts for more than 90% of Ukraine's total wheat area, winter wheat occupies more than a half of the overall wheat-sowing area in Russia.

Chilly nights in Australia

Reports suggest that winter wheat crops in parts of Victoria in Western Australia could have suffered frost damage last week.

Australian weather has been difficult for the country's wheat farmers as of late and the wheat production in the country is already forecast to fall to an 11-year low of 19.1Mt, according to the latest Australian government (ABARES) report.

European rapeseed off to poor start

The European Commission’s crop monitoring (MARS) report was published last week and highlighted the effect of ongoing dry weather in key oilseed rape-producing counties in terms of winter planting.

  • In France, rapeseed crops were virtually all planted by 17 September. However, many regions are in need of further rain to support crop development.
  • Rapeseed planting was completed in August in Poland but emergence and early growth is reported to be negatively affected by the dry conditions.
  • In Germany, in areas where adequate rain had fallen, rapeseed crops were planted on time. In drier areas, the Commission reports that farmers had sown into dry soils hoping for rainfall.
  • Low soil moisture was also reported to be a problem for rapeseed planting in Romania.
  • On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, maize and oilseed rape futures recorded further loses over the last week.

    Rapeseed prices from Paris for November delivery were down €5/t since last week to €362/t. November 2017 maize prices recorded a €2.5/t decrease over the previous week to finish at €174/t by the close of trade on Monday.

    Milling wheat for delivery in December recorded a €4.5/t increase, however, since last week to finish yesterday’s trade at €202.25/t.

    Looking across the water to the Chicago grain market (CME), wheat, soya beans and maize all recorded gains over the past seven days.

    2018 December futures now stand at $141/t for maize, up $4.3/t, and $310/t for November-delivered soya beans, up $8.8/t. US wheat prices also increased over the past week with prices for the December-delivered crop up $6.6/t to $192/t.

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