Green harvest prices for barley and wheat remain in range of €135-€142/t and €155-€162/t respectively, according to the latest IFA grain market report.

The report also sates that the rainfall over the past week has come too little too late for many crops, particularly up through the midlands and into the east and northeast.

Grass growth has remained poor in many areas also, which has led to supplementary feeding of concentrates and strong feed demand.

The recently released preliminary BPS figures from the Department of Agriculture show a slight reduction in the overall cereal area for 2020. However, as expected winter crop plantings are down over 40%.

Although most of the lost area was made up with spring crops, the lack of winter crops and the prolonged dry conditions will see overall crop production down below 2m tonnes.

Due to the continuation of the low US maize prices, the automatic mechanism calculating import duties was triggered again, raising the import duty on maize into the EU from € 5.27 to €10.50 per tonne.

Malting barley

The FOB creil malting barley average price is currently €172/t. Prices rose significantly following a decision by China to put an 80% tariff on Australian barley, which led to Chinese demand for French malting barley.

With a lot of social establishments now reopened across Europe and with some Irish pubs reopening on 29 June, this should help malting demand.

International markets

Wheat and barley harvesting have begun in parts of the US, France and Russia. Due to recent beneficial rainfall across Europe and the Black Sea region, EU wheat prices have fallen to three-month lows.

However, yields in the EU are expected to be down significantly on last year for winter and spring crops due to the wet autumn and spring followed by very dry conditions from late spring onwards.

World demand for wheat is very strong, however, stocks are at record high and the wheat price is coming under increasing pressure in the feed market due to the relatively large price gap with maize.

US maize prices have risen from historic lows due to the increase in ethanol demand as world economies reopen following the pandemic.

In addition, US maize plantings have again been revised downwards and there is some concern for continuing dry weather across that mid-west and northern plains.

However, with world maize production expected to be near record highs and the reduction in industrial demand, it is difficult to see much more upside in prices from here, unless there is a significant weather event in the US.

In the soya bean market, markets have been supported due to increased Chinese purchases. However, like maize, it is difficult to see any major upside in the market due to projected production levels in the US.

With EU rapeseed production forecasts again revised lower, futures prices have remained strong. Over 60% of the rapeseed production in the EU goes into biofuel and this market is expected to remain robust once all economies in the EU fully reopen.