Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) is forecasting that the Australian cattle herd will grow by 4.3% in 2023 to 28.8m head, the highest level since 2014.

The sheep flock is forecast to grow to 78.75m head this year, the highest since 2007 and record lamb production and exports are forecast by MLA for 2023.

The recovery in the cattle herd marks the end of a prolonged period of rebuilding, with a record retention of females for the past 15 months following drought between 2017 and 2020, says MLA.

They are also forecasting that herd growth will continue over the next two years, reaching 29.6m by 2025, the highest since the mid 1970s.

MLA are predicting that 6.625m cattle will be available for slaughter in 2023, but scarcity of factory labour may mean that slaughter will be capped at 6m head.

Forecast

Lamb slaughter is forecast to be 22.6m in 2023, an increase of 595,000 head, or 2.7% on 2022 throughput, and a further 3.6% or 560,000 head increase is forecast for 2024 to 23.2m head, 5% or 1.1m lambs above the ten year average.

Carcase weights are forecast to be 25.1kg, 11% or 1.1kg above the ten-year average.

Australia is the largest sheep meat exporter and third largest beef exporter in the world, though volumes had fallen in recent years with herd rebuilding.

These MLA forecasts for 2023 and the years ahead suggest that Australia will be offering global markets considerably more beef and sheep meat.

With the UK trade deal due to come into effect with generous tariff free quotas for beef and sheep meat immediately, we can expect a considerable increase in exports of both products to the UK.