Markets received mixed signals over the past week, but prices remain pretty much as they were. The passage of time means that spot price is very much November price, as local harvest pressure wanes and November is next month.

Currency continues to play a significant role in markets, especially sterling. Last week’s USDA stocks estimates indicated September maize stocks up but it also reported higher domestic and export demand.

On wheat, the situation was more bullish, but it did recognise increasing concerns for the availability and supply of quality milling wheat. This appears to be echoed around the world at the moment.

Politics continue to impact on markets also. Argentina announced that it will not introduce any more of the promised tax cuts on soyabean exports until January 2018 due to budget deficits. And a recent HGCA market update reported that Russia’s agriculture minister could reinstate that country’s wheat export tax in future if a substantial production limitation event occurred, such as a severe currency realignment or a large cut in native output. So it remains a somewhat uncertain source for buyers.

Native prices are broadly similar to a week ago, with spot now effectively a November price. So prices to the end of the year now alternate around €162/t for wheat with €10 to €12/t less for barley. For the moment, there is a small carry available into next year with €165 and €166/t indicated for March and May wheat respectively.