World grain production (wheat and coarse grains) is forecast to increase by 40m tonne (mt) in 2020/21 to an all-time high of 2,226mt.

The forecast came from this week’s International Grain Council report, which outlines how this increase is largely driven by record maize output (+32mt), but with bigger harvests of wheat, sorghum, oats and rye expected as well.

As for maize, the US and Brazil are having notably bigger crops, however smaller harvests are predicted for the EU, Ukraine, Argentina, South Africa and China.

Consumption

Global grain consumption is also expected to see a new record high of 2,223mt, an increase of 29mt. The increase is seen across various sectors, including food (+10mt), feed (+9mt), industry (+8mt) and other uses (+2mt).

Despite the anticipated increase in wheat, barley, sorghum, oats and rye carry over, global total grain carryover stocks at the end of 2020/21 are expected to see only a modest rise of 3mt, to 619mt.

This is due to a further contraction of maize carryover (-18mt). The drop in maize stocks is mainly tied to a further drawdown in China.

Soya beans

Underpinned by a rebound in US output and coupled with potentially bigger harvests in the southern hemisphere, world soya bean production is expected to see a 9% increase to 370mt.

While a continued recovery in Chinese feed demand is expected to underpin heightened demand, further increases are likely across a range of smaller consumers, reflecting reduced availabilities of alternatives, such as rapeseed/canola and sunflower seed.

Global carryovers are projected to be broadly unchanged.