Beef Trends: factories move to Christmas mode

The unwritten rule is you don’t mention Christmas until after Halloween, but it’s all the talk at the moment in beef processor groups as they circle the wagons on their supplies ahead of the busy holiday period.

Current analysis of shopper trends would suggest that Christmas 2024 could be a bumper one for beef sales, with retailers already putting in some big orders to Irish processors for the next six to eight weeks.

Some factories have even increased the number of days on which they are killing, such is the demand for beef.

All this, coupled with a big drop in carcase weights and a further tightening in numbers over the next few weeks, means the price can only go one way and it’s already started.

Foyle Meats in Donegal has been first out of the blocks to break the €5.30/kg barrier, with its base quote of €5.35/kg for heifers killing out between 300kg and 400kg this week.

Its bullock quote has also lifted to €5.30/kg. That’s a 20c/kg lift in two weeks from the Donegal-based processor.

Others have been a little slower to break ranks, at least publicly, with many holding on to a base quote of €5.10 for bullocks and €5.15/kg for heifers.

Once pressure is applied though, there is another 5c to 10c/kg to be achieved from almost all processors such is their need for cattle.

The advice to farmers is to bargain hard when selling and make sure you know what else is being paid for cattle before any commitments are given.

Farmers in some of the factory clubs this week have Aberdeen Angus heifers coming into close to €6/kg when all breed and other bonuses have been applied.

If factories are making money buying Aberdeen Angus heifers at €6/kg, there’s scope for a lot more in prices being paid to smaller finishers outside the factory family.

Cows

The cow trade has also seen some improvement, with quotes lifting, especially for farmers with larger numbers to sell.

Factory agents and wholesalers are very active competing in marts again this week for slaughter-fit cows.

O+ suckler cows are generally working off €4.55/kg to €4.65/kg, while O grading dairy cows are being bought at €4.65/kg to €4.75/kg, depending on which factory you are dealing with.

R grading cows are being quoted at €4.85/kg to €4.95/kg and higher money is available where numbers are involved.

P+3 cows are working off €4.40/kg to €4.50/kg, depending on weight, age and flesh cover. Well-fleshed U grading cows continue to command a top price of €5.00/kg to €5.20/kg and over it for young fleshed heavy cows.

Bulls

Under-24-month bulls are still working off a €5.35/kg to €5.40/kg base price for U grading bulls.

R grading bulls are coming in at €5.20/kg to €5.30/kg, while O grading bulls are being bought at €5.00/kg to €5.15/kg. P grading bulls are working off €5.00/kg, depending on weight and flesh cover.

Under-16-month bulls are generally working off a €5.05/kg to €5.15/kg base.

Last week’s kill came in at just over 40,000 head, with another big drop in the bullock kill leaving last week the lowest bullock kill since the end of August. The cow kill went up by just over 600 head.

IFA livestock chair Declan Hanrahan said: “The gap in beef prices with our key markets is not acceptable and must be closed immediately.

“The market justifies further increases in beef prices and factories must close the gap with the Bord Bia prime export benchmark price .”

NI comment

Base quotes remain on 482p/kg (€6.09/kg inc VAT) for U-3 cattle at NI plants, but deals are 15p to 20p/kg above this with 496p to 500p/kg (€6.28 to €6.33/kg) paid for in-spec animals. Cows are a strong trade at 400p/kg (€5.06/kg).