There has been an uplift in activity of farmers buying fertiliser over the last two days due to concerns over the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on supply and price, while one fertiliser merchant said there is “panic” in the merchant trade like never before.
One Cork importer said his own merchants have reported that after “standing off for weeks” waiting for prices to fall, “farmers have all of a sudden woken up” and looked to secure fertiliser on Friday.
Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal, a Wexford-based importer said the “uplift” in activity over the last two days couldn’t be described as “panic in any shape or form” yet, but said that “the reality is reality” and warned that there will be further fertiliser supply and price issues in the months ahead.
He said price increases in fertiliser are “real and not fictitious”, but said that there has been issues with supply due to Russia’s activity over the last two months and the supply challenges brought by the eastern European conflict have not come about “overnight”.
Panic
Gouldings managing director Liam Dunphy said that there is a panic in the merchant trade like he has never seen before.
He said that fertiliser supplies will be under pressure and that there’s a certain amount there at the moment which will get farmers a long way if it’s spread out properly.
“Every farmer should get fertiliser this spring. Nobody should be left without it." \Donal O' Leary
“Every farmer should get fertiliser this spring. Nobody should be left without it.
"The best scenario is that everyone gets some bit of fertiliser for at least March and April, rather than a percentage of farmers buying four or five loads now and not spreading it until June,” he said.
Dunphy said that there will be no scarcity if every farmer gets a bit now, adding that smaller farmers need to be more proactive.
“The smaller farmers need to come looking for it now. It may not be there in four or five weeks’ time,” he said.
Flurry
Frank Glynn of Drummonds described how he has seen a “flurry of orders” in since Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine by Russia, but said this was “nothing major”.
He said everyone wants to be looking at fertiliser and not looking for it.
A second Wexford-based importer told the Irish Farmers Journal that while the “phones have been really busy”, farmers are “ringing to shoot the breeze” on the Ukraine conflict, but are not actually buying more product yet.
He said this waiting was foolish and will mean farmers are faced with higher prices in the months ahead.
Yard full
Elsewhere, sales representatives from Glanbia branches in Kilkenny and Wexford said that their “yards are full of fertiliser” and while there’s been “no panic” due to Ukraine, there has been an increase in farmers looking to make sure their fertiliser is accounted for in recent days.
Both representatives reported that fertiliser in bulk “can’t be got” and said this will likely mean changes this year for any customers who usually buy in bulk.
Another importer said: “If you drew a line between Limerick and Dublin and move up the country, they’re not even thinking about [fertiliser] up there.”
While weather conditions have been unsuitable and calving is under way, he said many of the farmers in the west and northwest have their “heads in the sand hoping the price goes down”. He said that “now, realistically, this price won’t drop”.
He said the way the fertiliser market has “gone from zero to 100” over the last year is “really hard to swallow” for all stakeholders in the market.
Quotes paused
Meanwhile, fertiliser manufacturers in Europe stopped offering new quotes and withdrew their latest quotes on Thursday night, according to several importers.
A communication from Yara to one Irish importer stated that the company had to “pull out of offers” it had made, as the company needed “more time to assess the consequences of Russian-Ukrainian conflict”.
When contacted by the Irish Farmers Journal, a spokesperson for Yara declined to comment on the specific matter of contracts.
Price increases in fertiliser are “real and not fictitious”, one importer said. \ Donal O' Leary
However, she said the company remained “very concerned about the serious situation unfolding in Ukraine”.
“The events currently unfolding in Ukraine are already further impacting market developments for fertilisers, food and a number of raw materials linked to these.
"Given the high uncertainty and complexity of the situation, it is too early for us to assess the overall impact on our operation and industry,” the Yara spokesperson said.
“It is clear that this situation will put further pressure on an already strained food system, but we will do our utmost to maintain supply to our customers and to avoid a further escalating [of the] food crisis in the world,” she added.
Russia
An importer in the southeast said that 27% nitrogen is a product that Ireland gets a lot of from Russia and warned that there will be “serious issues” sourcing it in future.
He said dealing with two of the main manufacturers of 27% nitrogen is “up in the air” and that they have had to cancel orders for product from Russia, which had too much “red tape” and “stunk to high heaven” on Friday morning.
The importer predicted that when manufacturers in Europe eventually come back with new quotes next week, there will be a stalemate as distributors “will say no”.
He said manufacturers will then come back with a lower price the week after that will still be up €40 to €50. Regardless of this delay, he said “prices are only going one direction”.
Liam Dunphy added: “They’re not quoting [in Europe] because they simply don’t know what prices are going to be.
“There’s fertiliser on order from Russia and that is now in danger of not arriving. European manufacturers will be protecting the product they have for their own domestic market.”
Department measures
When asked by the Irish Farmers Journal if it is looking at measures to insulate farmers from further fertiliser price increases and supply issues created by the conflict in Ukraine, the Department of Agriculture said it is working with other Government departments to “assess the potential impact of the conflict in the Ukraine across the economy, including in the agriculture sector”.
On Irish exports to Russia, a spokesperson said that “any action in relation to export controls will be taken in as part of a European Union-wide response”.
There has been an uplift in activity of farmers buying fertiliser over the last two days due to concerns over the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on supply and price, while one fertiliser merchant said there is “panic” in the merchant trade like never before.
One Cork importer said his own merchants have reported that after “standing off for weeks” waiting for prices to fall, “farmers have all of a sudden woken up” and looked to secure fertiliser on Friday.
Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal, a Wexford-based importer said the “uplift” in activity over the last two days couldn’t be described as “panic in any shape or form” yet, but said that “the reality is reality” and warned that there will be further fertiliser supply and price issues in the months ahead.
He said price increases in fertiliser are “real and not fictitious”, but said that there has been issues with supply due to Russia’s activity over the last two months and the supply challenges brought by the eastern European conflict have not come about “overnight”.
Panic
Gouldings managing director Liam Dunphy said that there is a panic in the merchant trade like he has never seen before.
He said that fertiliser supplies will be under pressure and that there’s a certain amount there at the moment which will get farmers a long way if it’s spread out properly.
“Every farmer should get fertiliser this spring. Nobody should be left without it." \Donal O' Leary
“Every farmer should get fertiliser this spring. Nobody should be left without it.
"The best scenario is that everyone gets some bit of fertiliser for at least March and April, rather than a percentage of farmers buying four or five loads now and not spreading it until June,” he said.
Dunphy said that there will be no scarcity if every farmer gets a bit now, adding that smaller farmers need to be more proactive.
“The smaller farmers need to come looking for it now. It may not be there in four or five weeks’ time,” he said.
Flurry
Frank Glynn of Drummonds described how he has seen a “flurry of orders” in since Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine by Russia, but said this was “nothing major”.
He said everyone wants to be looking at fertiliser and not looking for it.
A second Wexford-based importer told the Irish Farmers Journal that while the “phones have been really busy”, farmers are “ringing to shoot the breeze” on the Ukraine conflict, but are not actually buying more product yet.
He said this waiting was foolish and will mean farmers are faced with higher prices in the months ahead.
Yard full
Elsewhere, sales representatives from Glanbia branches in Kilkenny and Wexford said that their “yards are full of fertiliser” and while there’s been “no panic” due to Ukraine, there has been an increase in farmers looking to make sure their fertiliser is accounted for in recent days.
Both representatives reported that fertiliser in bulk “can’t be got” and said this will likely mean changes this year for any customers who usually buy in bulk.
Another importer said: “If you drew a line between Limerick and Dublin and move up the country, they’re not even thinking about [fertiliser] up there.”
While weather conditions have been unsuitable and calving is under way, he said many of the farmers in the west and northwest have their “heads in the sand hoping the price goes down”. He said that “now, realistically, this price won’t drop”.
He said the way the fertiliser market has “gone from zero to 100” over the last year is “really hard to swallow” for all stakeholders in the market.
Quotes paused
Meanwhile, fertiliser manufacturers in Europe stopped offering new quotes and withdrew their latest quotes on Thursday night, according to several importers.
A communication from Yara to one Irish importer stated that the company had to “pull out of offers” it had made, as the company needed “more time to assess the consequences of Russian-Ukrainian conflict”.
When contacted by the Irish Farmers Journal, a spokesperson for Yara declined to comment on the specific matter of contracts.
Price increases in fertiliser are “real and not fictitious”, one importer said. \ Donal O' Leary
However, she said the company remained “very concerned about the serious situation unfolding in Ukraine”.
“The events currently unfolding in Ukraine are already further impacting market developments for fertilisers, food and a number of raw materials linked to these.
"Given the high uncertainty and complexity of the situation, it is too early for us to assess the overall impact on our operation and industry,” the Yara spokesperson said.
“It is clear that this situation will put further pressure on an already strained food system, but we will do our utmost to maintain supply to our customers and to avoid a further escalating [of the] food crisis in the world,” she added.
Russia
An importer in the southeast said that 27% nitrogen is a product that Ireland gets a lot of from Russia and warned that there will be “serious issues” sourcing it in future.
He said dealing with two of the main manufacturers of 27% nitrogen is “up in the air” and that they have had to cancel orders for product from Russia, which had too much “red tape” and “stunk to high heaven” on Friday morning.
The importer predicted that when manufacturers in Europe eventually come back with new quotes next week, there will be a stalemate as distributors “will say no”.
He said manufacturers will then come back with a lower price the week after that will still be up €40 to €50. Regardless of this delay, he said “prices are only going one direction”.
Liam Dunphy added: “They’re not quoting [in Europe] because they simply don’t know what prices are going to be.
“There’s fertiliser on order from Russia and that is now in danger of not arriving. European manufacturers will be protecting the product they have for their own domestic market.”
Department measures
When asked by the Irish Farmers Journal if it is looking at measures to insulate farmers from further fertiliser price increases and supply issues created by the conflict in Ukraine, the Department of Agriculture said it is working with other Government departments to “assess the potential impact of the conflict in the Ukraine across the economy, including in the agriculture sector”.
On Irish exports to Russia, a spokesperson said that “any action in relation to export controls will be taken in as part of a European Union-wide response”.
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