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Global grain futures markets all fell in the past week due to the continuously increasing new-crop output. New-crop wheat futures fell considerably over the past two weeks.
News of higher wheat output expectations from destinations such as Russia and the US have been added to by the increased estimate from Brazil’s Safrina maize crop.
Maize planting in the US is currently around 30% complete, well behind the country’s five-year average of 66% complete. With more rain forecast, there are fears that this could impact the US maize area. Any impact will be outweighed by increased yields elsewhere. The most recent USDA global maize production estimate was increased by 14.8Mt to 1,134Mt for in 2019/20.
On the wheat side, EU production is projected at a four-year high of 153.8Mt. Ukrainian production is projected to be the largest in nearly 30 years at 29Mt. Russia is projected to be the second-highest on record at 77Mt and the US is forecast to be up slightly year on year, despite reduced area.
Global barley production is also forecast to rise to an 11-year high, mainly from within the EU.
And with harvest of small grain cereals likely to start in two to three weeks, any major output upset may only come from maize.
These combined have impacted significantly on physical prices, both for old- and new-crop.
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