When World War II ended, there was a short honeymoon where the Allies savoured their victory before the Cold War set in between Russia and the West.

I was reminded of that over the weekend, when Minister Eamon Ryan said that for Ireland to hit our 51% emissions targets by 2030, the upper range of all the proposed sectoral ranges will have to be hit.

This seemed an early declaration that the sectoral target bands are there to condition people to the reality that will face us over time.

To put it bluntly, 22% to 30% is a diplomatic way of saying 30%. The difference between the lower and higher end of the range is much more significant for farming than other sectors.

A 22% reduction is 4mt CO2 eq, whereas 30% requires a 6mt CO2 eq reduction. That’s half as much again, a 50% higher target. In comparison, transport has a range of 6mt to 7mt CO2 eq, a difference of 16%.

It’s no wonder that Minister Charlie McConalogue is presenting a very different account to Ryan (see page 16). This is a landing zone, with 22% almost reachable with current technology, and the potential for new efficiencies and technologies to come on-stream as minds concentrate.

Just who is right is all the more important if we fail to meet our targets, if Taoiseach Micheál Martin is to be taken at his word that “departments and sectors” that miss targets will pay. When and how is unknown, but for farming, with the Department holding the pursestrings on €2.3bn of Pillar II co-funding plus the carbon tax 1.5bn, the pathway to taking that money straight out of farmers’ pockets is apparent.

One way of looking at all this is that the minister and Department have so far shown they can make good on their word.

Pessimists feared that this cabinet, possibly the most urban in the nation’s history, would expect agriculture to deliver close to the 51% national target. Instead, there is recognition of how difficult farming will find it to cut emissions much beyond 20%, highlighted by the KPMG report and the Climate Change Advisory Council’s own analysis, has been recognised and taken into account.

Let’s hope détente can be maintained between Agriculture House and the Department of the Environment while we settle into the task of parachuting farming safely into the landing zone.