Here come the men in black: Ireland facing the ultimate test

First off is the bad news. Not the absences of Conor Murray and Robbie Henshaw, we’ve had three days to acclimatise to the fact that they won’t be present in the Aviva Stadium on Saturday evening. No, it’s the fact that Ireland can’t seize first place in the world rankings with a victory against New Zealand.

Under the system, you gain more points for beating a higher-ranked team, so the world champions’ come-from-behind win over Twickenham has increased their lead on Ireland – the in-built home advantage meant that Joe Schmidt’s team made no gain from overcoming ninth-placed Argentina. We’d wager that there were quite a few Irish people cheering on as the All Blacks fought back from 15-0 down, not realising that our own chances of top spot were dwindling.

Not to worry. The ranking issue was always going to be secondary – a home win on Saturday won’t be any less heralded just because the status quo hasn’t been upset. The main positive to be taken from last week was the fact that any complacency in the wake of the Italy win would have been rooted out. However, Steve Hansen’s side will be coming into the game in a similar frame of mind, having avoided what would have been only a second loss to England since 2003.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve spoken about the need for squad depth on these pages and how Ireland are really beginning to develop in that regard. Saturday will be the biggest test as to what level that strength is ahead of the Six Nations defence and the World Cup next year.

Murray, Henshaw and Seán O’Brien are big names to replace, though the concern with the latter is lessened given just how well Dan Leavy did after being introduced against Argentina. Nevertheless, it must be gutting for O’Brien to have battled back to full fitness after missing the grand slam and Leinster’s Champions Cup win only to suffer a broken arm.

Ireland know all about amassing an early lead against the All Blacks only to be denied, with that 24-22 defeat in 2013 leaving people to wonder if that first victory against them would forever remain elusive

Ireland are at least blessed to have options in the back row, with Josh van der Flier also able to be called upon.

Henshaw, as big a loss as he is, won’t be irreplaceable either, with Bundee Aki playing well at 12 and Garry Ringrose as bright as ever at outside centre.

There is also a decision to be made in the second row after Devin Toner’s steadying impact against Argentina but, again, with James Ryan, Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne in the mix, Schmidt is choosing from a position of strength.

However, Murray’s unavailability at scrum-half is a blow. Ordinarily, Kieran Marmion would be automatic to replace him – as he was against Argentina, scoring that first try with a clever break – but an ankle injury raises a small question-mark over how long the Connacht man will be able to last. He should be fine, with Luke McGrath next in line if not. The 25-year-old Leinster player has just seven caps, but, as Joey Carbery showed in Chicago two years ago, inexperience doesn’t have to be an impediment against the All Blacks.

Cutting out mistakes

What would mitigate more against Ireland would be an error-laden performance such as what we saw against Argentina, with the malaise not limited to one player or an area of the field. Under Schmidt, Ireland have adopted the Paul O’Connell mantra of “being the best at everything that requires no skill”, ie getting the basics right every time because there’s no reason not to, but that was very much missing last week.

If there is a team that will punish any such indiscretions, it is New Zealand. There is no doubt that they were fortunate in Twickenham as the tightest of TMO calls went their way for what England had thought was Sam Underhill’s late match-winning try. There are plenty who feel that New Zealand benefit more than most from tight calls – or blatantly wrong ones, as seemed to be case during Richie McCaw’s career – but the counter-argument is that good teams make their own luck.

Former England coach Clive Woodward made that point, that England should have gone for penalty goals and drop-goals when leading by five points early in the second half rather than being gung-ho in the search for another try. England’s decision-making wasn’t at its optimum and New Zealand made the most of that.

Ireland know all about amassing an early lead against the All Blacks only to be denied, with that 24-22 defeat in 2013 leaving people to wonder if that first victory against them would forever remain elusive. It is to Ireland’s credit that they managed to win the next time the teams met, in Chicago, but backing that up a fortnight later in Dublin proved beyond them.

Having been caught once, New Zealand were not going to allow it again – as D’Angelo Barksdale said in The Wire, the king stay the king.

They will come to Dublin in a similar frame of mind. What better way for the top dogs to show the rest than by seeing off the nearest challenger? For them to have beaten England while being outscored by two tries to one shows that they have the extra tricks in their armoury and Beauden Barrett made use of his Gaelic football grounding in Meath by scoring his first international drop goal.

Can Ireland sharpen up sufficiently to put them under pressure? Yes. Will they? You’d imagine so. Will it be enough? We’d like to say yes but, having been nearly caught against England, it’s hard to foresee New Zealand allowing such a similar opportunity so quickly.

Fixtures