US soya bean prices were the losers of the week as prices fell sharply due to the ongoing US/China trade dispute. Wheat markets reacted to a bullish tone on the back of reduced output in key growing countries but soon contracted when favourable growing conditions arrived in the US.
Wheat
Europe: Warm, dry weather across Europe will see winter crop yields fall across the continent. Wheat yields around the Baltic region in particular are expected to take a notable hit, the European Commission’s crop monitoring outlet has stated.
Hot, dry weather across countries bordering the Baltic Sea has meant that crop development is ahead of schedule, which has reduced their yield potential.
Average soft wheat yields in the EU are set to drop 1.2% year-on-year to 6.04mt/ha, down from a 6.19mt/ha forecast last month, although the figure remains 1.2% above the five-year average (AgriCensus report).
Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult has lowered its production forecasts for wheat and barley production in the Ukraine in 2018/19. Wheat production is forecast to be at 25.5mt, down from 26.3mt in May and the lowest since 2014/15 (AHDB report). The first 10,500t of winter wheat has been harvested in the southern regions of Ukraine, while 268,000t of winter barley has been harvested.
About 4,000ha of winter wheat has been harvested with an average yield of 2.62mt/ha, while the average winter barley yield crept up to 3.3mt/ha, based on an area of 81,000ha, from 3.23mt/ha at the end of last week. Ukrainian farmers sowed about 6.1 million hectares of winter wheat and 924,000ha of winter barley last autumn (AgriCensus).
Russia: The 2018/19 Russian wheat production has been revised down by 3.5Mt to 68.5Mt. Dryness in the country following wet spring weather has led the USDA to revise its estimates. The projection represents a 19% decline in Russian wheat production from 2017/18. This could have implications for Russia's exportable surplus this year (AHDB report). Maize
US maize rated in good to excellent condition increased one percentage point to 19%, with the good rating being held at 59%.
Overall, 96% of the corn crop remains fair through excellent, according to the data, while corn emerged reached 98%, surpassing both the five-year average and last year’s figures, both of which stood at 97% at this point of the year (AgriCensus report).
Soya bean
The US/China trade dispute escalated last week as the US confirmed the products that would be subject to tariffs. This was followed by a similar announcement by China. US soya beans will be subject to a 25% import tariff from 6 July. Soya bean futures took a significant hit as a result.
Oilseed
The USDA last week reduced its forecast of global rapeseed output by 0.35mt to 75.1mt on the back of a cut to EU production (74.3mt in 2017/18). The oilseed rape market may yet have some power to resist the downward pressure from soya bean prices.
On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, maize, oilseed rape and wheat futures recorded losses over the past week.
Paris maize for delivery in November was back €3.50/t over the week to finish yesterday’s trade at €165.5/t.
Oilseed rape for delivery in November recorded a loss of €3.0/t to €355/t.
Wheat for delivery in December also recorded a loss of €7.75/t over the week to finish yesterday’s trade at € 177/t.
Looking across the water to the Chicago grain market (CME), maize, wheat and soya beans markets recorded significant losses over the week.
2018 December futures now stand at $148.42/t and $191.07/t for maize and wheat respectively, down $4.80 and $12.27.
Soya bean futures for November delivery also recorded a significant loss of $22.19 and $336.79/t.
Read more
Wheat caught in strong weather market
Dry weather takes toll on crops across the world
US soya bean prices were the losers of the week as prices fell sharply due to the ongoing US/China trade dispute. Wheat markets reacted to a bullish tone on the back of reduced output in key growing countries but soon contracted when favourable growing conditions arrived in the US.
Wheat
Europe: Warm, dry weather across Europe will see winter crop yields fall across the continent. Wheat yields around the Baltic region in particular are expected to take a notable hit, the European Commission’s crop monitoring outlet has stated.Hot, dry weather across countries bordering the Baltic Sea has meant that crop development is ahead of schedule, which has reduced their yield potential.
Average soft wheat yields in the EU are set to drop 1.2% year-on-year to 6.04mt/ha, down from a 6.19mt/ha forecast last month, although the figure remains 1.2% above the five-year average (AgriCensus report).
Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult has lowered its production forecasts for wheat and barley production in the Ukraine in 2018/19. Wheat production is forecast to be at 25.5mt, down from 26.3mt in May and the lowest since 2014/15 (AHDB report). The first 10,500t of winter wheat has been harvested in the southern regions of Ukraine, while 268,000t of winter barley has been harvested.
About 4,000ha of winter wheat has been harvested with an average yield of 2.62mt/ha, while the average winter barley yield crept up to 3.3mt/ha, based on an area of 81,000ha, from 3.23mt/ha at the end of last week. Ukrainian farmers sowed about 6.1 million hectares of winter wheat and 924,000ha of winter barley last autumn (AgriCensus).
Russia: The 2018/19 Russian wheat production has been revised down by 3.5Mt to 68.5Mt. Dryness in the country following wet spring weather has led the USDA to revise its estimates. The projection represents a 19% decline in Russian wheat production from 2017/18. This could have implications for Russia's exportable surplus this year (AHDB report). Maize
US maize rated in good to excellent condition increased one percentage point to 19%, with the good rating being held at 59%.
Overall, 96% of the corn crop remains fair through excellent, according to the data, while corn emerged reached 98%, surpassing both the five-year average and last year’s figures, both of which stood at 97% at this point of the year (AgriCensus report).
Soya bean
The US/China trade dispute escalated last week as the US confirmed the products that would be subject to tariffs. This was followed by a similar announcement by China. US soya beans will be subject to a 25% import tariff from 6 July. Soya bean futures took a significant hit as a result.
Oilseed
The USDA last week reduced its forecast of global rapeseed output by 0.35mt to 75.1mt on the back of a cut to EU production (74.3mt in 2017/18). The oilseed rape market may yet have some power to resist the downward pressure from soya bean prices.
On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, maize, oilseed rape and wheat futures recorded losses over the past week.
Paris maize for delivery in November was back €3.50/t over the week to finish yesterday’s trade at €165.5/t.
Oilseed rape for delivery in November recorded a loss of €3.0/t to €355/t.
Wheat for delivery in December also recorded a loss of €7.75/t over the week to finish yesterday’s trade at € 177/t.
Looking across the water to the Chicago grain market (CME), maize, wheat and soya beans markets recorded significant losses over the week.
2018 December futures now stand at $148.42/t and $191.07/t for maize and wheat respectively, down $4.80 and $12.27.
Soya bean futures for November delivery also recorded a significant loss of $22.19 and $336.79/t.
Read more
Wheat caught in strong weather market
Dry weather takes toll on crops across the world
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