BCR cap unlikely to be breached

As noted in last week’s edition, NI is currently on course to set a new record high for total cattle slaughterings, surpassing the 505,895 from 2022.

The kill to week ending 12 October 2024 is 1% ahead of that from 2022 and 5% ahead of the equivalent period in 2023.

Recent forecasts from the Livestock and Meat Commission suggest numbers coming forward will remain strong over the coming months, before a tightening in supply from 2025 onwards.

With the cattle kill in Britain also running nearly 3% ahead this year, the fact UK beef prices are in and around record levels, highlights how robust the domestic market currently is.

In the meantime, there is another issue to consider around a potential record kill in 2024, with the possibility that a cap on the number of eligible animals in the Beef Carbon Reduction (BCR) scheme is breached.

The maximum number of steers, heifers and young bulls that can receive the payment is 352,000 head. Where this total is exceeded, DAERA will proportionately reduce the number of cattle that each farm business is able to claim under the scheme.

With nearly 300,000 prime cattle already slaughtered to 12 October 2024, it is likely this figure could get close to 380,000 by the end of the year. However, this total includes imports from the Republic of Ireland, which aren’t eligible for the BCR scheme.

If recent trends continue, prime cattle imports from ROI for direct slaughter in NI are on track to hit 20,000 head by the end of 2024.

There were also nearly 30,000 cattle imported from ROI to farms in NI for breeding and production in 2023 and none of these cattle will be eligible for the BCR payment if slaughtered in 2024.

Taking these factors into account and also allowing for the fact that not all other prime cattle meet the current age limit (30 months) and residency requirement (60 days in the last 100 on the same farm), it is very unlikely the 352,000 cap will be breached in this, or future years.