Outside of combinable crops, profits have been good on NI farms over the last two years, but there are “more headwinds” as we move through 2026 and beyond, a leading farm consultant has said.
Presenting data at the NI Spring Conference organised by the Irish Farmers Journal and Livestock and Meat Commission, Michael Haverty from Andersons estimated that overall farm profitability in 2026 will be down 15% on the previous year.
“Looking to 2027, we have concerns about that, particularly when you add on input cost inflation,” he said.
It is coming at a time when output prices are on a downward trajectory
Analysis by Andersons shows that farm input prices in March 2026 were up 7.6% year-on-year, which is the largest spike in costs since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Back then, farm commodity prices responded positively as supplies tightened, however it is a different scenario now.
“It is coming at a time when output prices are on a downward trajectory. There are no short supplies at his point. It is creating a cost of farming crisis,” said Haverty.
Supermarket prices
He added that supermarket prices are now much higher than they were in 2022, so there is limited scope to take higher returns from the market, while inflation is also eating into direct support provided to farmers. 
Michael Haverty from the Andersons Centre. \ Peter Houston
In the wider UK economy, the inflation rate in March rose to 3.3%, which is well ahead of the Bank of England target of 2%.
According to Haverty, that will limit any scope to reduce bank interest rates this year and there is the potential that rates might have to edge upwards to control future inflation.
“We can expect some borrowing costs to rise,” he said.
Outside of combinable crops, profits have been good on NI farms over the last two years, but there are “more headwinds” as we move through 2026 and beyond, a leading farm consultant has said.
Presenting data at the NI Spring Conference organised by the Irish Farmers Journal and Livestock and Meat Commission, Michael Haverty from Andersons estimated that overall farm profitability in 2026 will be down 15% on the previous year.
“Looking to 2027, we have concerns about that, particularly when you add on input cost inflation,” he said.
It is coming at a time when output prices are on a downward trajectory
Analysis by Andersons shows that farm input prices in March 2026 were up 7.6% year-on-year, which is the largest spike in costs since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Back then, farm commodity prices responded positively as supplies tightened, however it is a different scenario now.
“It is coming at a time when output prices are on a downward trajectory. There are no short supplies at his point. It is creating a cost of farming crisis,” said Haverty.
Supermarket prices
He added that supermarket prices are now much higher than they were in 2022, so there is limited scope to take higher returns from the market, while inflation is also eating into direct support provided to farmers.
Michael Haverty from the Andersons Centre. \ Peter Houston
In the wider UK economy, the inflation rate in March rose to 3.3%, which is well ahead of the Bank of England target of 2%.
According to Haverty, that will limit any scope to reduce bank interest rates this year and there is the potential that rates might have to edge upwards to control future inflation.
“We can expect some borrowing costs to rise,” he said.
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