USUALLY at this stage of rugby’s European Champions Cup we have to get the calculators out, but thankfully the picture emerging from this year’s pool stage is clear as we head into the deciding weekend.

Should Ulster and Munster win they join Leinster in the last eight, possibly all as pool winners.

Connacht are happily through to the same stage of the Challenge Cup, where they are real contenders to win it out and rejoin the European elite.

It’s been a while since we had all four Irish teams make the knockout stages in Europe, an outcome more likely than not after Sunday’s permutations have been figured out.

Ulster’s task was the most difficult of the four heading into last weekend, and despite coughing up a losing bonus point to La Rochelle in Belfast, luck was on their side elsewhere. Already-eliminated Harlequins came back from the dead to beat Wasps, all but killing off Wasps’ hopes in the process.

That remarkable turnaround means that Wasps can only reach 17 points which won’t be enough to make the last eight.

This means that the English side don’t have much to play for, unlike Ulster, who travel to the Ricoh Arena with it all on the line. While a win guarantees advancement to the quarter-finals, a four-try, five-point performance would see the Ulstermen through as group winners.

Elsewhere in the pool, La Rochelle should beat the valiant Harlequins at home to also progress. A bonus point win for the French side would see them top the pool if Ulster fail to take all five points.

While the Ulster supporters can dream of bonus point wins, the win takes priority as 21 points will safely see them into the last eight.

The Northerners can make this happen with a complete performance, something it must be said is eluding them on current form. Should they get to the play-offs they will be a dangerous side because the break will come at the right time for them. Ulster are not a form side right now, they could be in April, but their leaders must summon something on Sunday afternoon.

Bowe Bowing out

Maybe Tommy Bowe’s announcement of his impending retirement can add some extra motivation to the camp.

The Monaghan man has enjoyed a sterling career with Ulster, Ospreys, Ireland and the Lions and a European Cup would be a great send off for the flying winger.

Losing this game to Wasps would represent a huge setback for the province.

It is unthinkable for them and their supporters who are verging on the cusp of being tagged with the dreaded ‘long suffering’ tag.

Rory Best, Iain Henderson, Johnny Cooney and Jacob Stockdale are putting Ulster’s best foot forward but they need more help than is being offered by their teammates at present.

Last week also saw the departure of Christian Lealiifano, with the out half returning to Australian side the Brumbies.

Whether 34-year-old All Black Stephen Donald, brought in to replace Lealiifano, can add a spark to Ulster’s backline remains to be seen. The hero of New Zealand’s 2011 World Cup triumph will have to be at his very best for Ulster to compete at the business end of both the Champions Cup and Pro 14.

Beating Wasps is not beyond them this weekend though, but they will struggle mightily to do it. While their opposition are out of contention, they are not short of pride, especially at home. If that manifests itself then the visitors are in trouble.

While it would be the good old days with four representatives in the knockout stages come April, Ulster are the weakest link. At the moment.

Munster’s task

Munster aren’t and they should beat Castres in Thomond Park with a bonus point for good measure to wrap up their pool.

While Racing 92 dampened the enthusiasm around the team with their win in Paris, grabbing a losing bonus means Munster are still in control of their destiny.

It is the form of real contenders to play away from home to a decent side like Racing, trail early in the first half 10-0 and early in the second 20-7, yet still take the game to the wire and come away with the crucial bonus. It was never going to be any other way.

A real plus of that display was the form of Keith Earls, who was on fire in France. He probably had the home fans thinking they had gotten the wrong man considering Simon Zebo’s indifferent display.

Along with the excellent Earls, Ian Keatley is reborn at 10. The ongoing loss of Tyler Bleyendaal has hardly been mentioned and with good reason.

The only potential fly in the Munster ointment is whether five points on Sunday will be enough to guarantee a home quarter-final.

For that to happen, Munster will be relying on a couple of other results to go their way.

They’re due that bit of luck and here’s hoping they get it.

Leinster’s dominance

Leinster can lose in Montpellier this Saturday regardless of what happens elsewhere. Currently the only unbeaten team in the competition, they will of course want to see out the pool stages in that vein, guaranteeing the number one seed and the potential of a home semi-final.

A loss in France and the worst case scenario is that they would be the third seed, but there is also a possibility that they lose and still remain one of the top two. Their cup overfloweth these past few months and they are clearly the best team in the competition. If only the quarter finals were in a fortnight and the semi-final and final following shortly afterward.

They’re not and Leinster’s immense depth means they will lose anything up to 14 players to Joe Schmidt for eight weeks. It shouldn’t affect the machine from rolling on but they’ll want those 14 to come back healthy.

The only clouds on their horizon may be fitness concerns over Johnny Sexton and Sean O’Brien. Of course they have the cover, but for the really big days to come in April, the biggest of the guns will be needed.

Barring some truly strange last weekend results there won’t be an English team in the last eight. That’s a statistic that should send shockwaves through their game, one that is somewhat masked by the strength of their international side. With France it is the other way around.

For some strange reason Ireland are managing to be strong in both club and country, franking the pattern affecting the other Six Nations sides. These are the good days. We should enjoy them all the more for it. CL

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