This is a subscriber-only article
The UK will be worse off under any Brexit scenario compared to staying in the EU, according to analysis by the UK government.
The analysis examined four scenarios: a no-deal Brexit; a Canada-style free trade agreement; a Norway-style membership; and Theresa May’s proposal.
A no-deal Brexit would hit the UK economy for the worse by 9.3%, while May’s proposal would cause the least damage, leaving the economy just 3.9% smaller after 15 years.
In all cases, the analysis predicted the economy would continue to grow but at a slower rate than it would if the UK retained its EU membership.
While the government’s analysis did not put an exact figure on what Brexit would cost, a think-tank in the UK said a 3.9% hit on GDP would cost the economy £100bn.
Northern Ireland
On a regional basis, Northern Ireland would be one of the most adversely affected areas under a no-deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. However, under Theresa May’s proposal there would be minimal impact.
The analysis also looked at sectoral impacts of the deals and found the UK’s agri-food sector would be particularly affected.
A no-deal Brexit could wipe almost 10% off the value of goods produced by the sector.
SHARING OPTIONS: