Any Brexit scenario will leave the UK worse off – British government analysis
Analysis by the UK government has shown that while the economy will continue to grow it will do so at a slower rate under any Brexit scenario compared to EU membership.
The UK will be worse off under any Brexit scenario compared to staying in the EU, according to analysis by the UK government.
The analysis examined four scenarios: a no-deal Brexit; a Canada-style free trade agreement; a Norway-style membership; and Theresa May’s proposal.
A no-deal Brexit would hit the UK economy for the worse by 9.3%, while May’s proposal would cause the least damage, leaving the economy just 3.9% smaller after 15 years.
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In all cases, the analysis predicted the economy would continue to grow but at a slower rate than it would if the UK retained its EU membership.
While the government’s analysis did not put an exact figure on what Brexit would cost, a think-tank in the UK said a 3.9% hit on GDP would cost the economy £100bn.
Northern Ireland
On a regional basis, Northern Ireland would be one of the most adversely affected areas under a no-deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. However, under Theresa May’s proposal there would be minimal impact.
The analysis also looked at sectoral impacts of the deals and found the UK’s agri-food sector would be particularly affected.
A no-deal Brexit could wipe almost 10% off the value of goods produced by the sector.
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Title: Any Brexit scenario will leave the UK worse off – British government analysis
Analysis by the UK government has shown that while the economy will continue to grow it will do so at a slower rate under any Brexit scenario compared to EU membership.
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The UK will be worse off under any Brexit scenario compared to staying in the EU, according to analysis by the UK government.
The analysis examined four scenarios: a no-deal Brexit; a Canada-style free trade agreement; a Norway-style membership; and Theresa May’s proposal.
A no-deal Brexit would hit the UK economy for the worse by 9.3%, while May’s proposal would cause the least damage, leaving the economy just 3.9% smaller after 15 years.
In all cases, the analysis predicted the economy would continue to grow but at a slower rate than it would if the UK retained its EU membership.
While the government’s analysis did not put an exact figure on what Brexit would cost, a think-tank in the UK said a 3.9% hit on GDP would cost the economy £100bn.
Northern Ireland
On a regional basis, Northern Ireland would be one of the most adversely affected areas under a no-deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. However, under Theresa May’s proposal there would be minimal impact.
The analysis also looked at sectoral impacts of the deals and found the UK’s agri-food sector would be particularly affected.
A no-deal Brexit could wipe almost 10% off the value of goods produced by the sector.
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