The EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier caused a flurry of activity on Friday by tweeting that Britain could unilaterally leave the backstop arrangement which was designed to prevent a hard and visible border on the island of Ireland.

It was a non-starter because his proposal was applicable just to Britain, ie England, Scotland and Wales. It did not refer to the United Kingdom (UK), which also includes Northern Ireland (NI).

2017 arrangement

By leaving NI out, it was merely reverting to the position that was tentatively agreed back in December 2017 but which has proved impossible for Theresa May’s Government to sell to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), whose 10 seats in Westminster keep the Conservative party in power.

For the DUP, the 2017 deal was unacceptable because NI having a different relationship with the EU undermined the constitutional integrity of NI’s place in the EU because if NI was treated as a de facto member of the EU, then some boundaries would exist between NI and the rest of the UK. In other words, a border would exist "in the Irish Sea".

Island of Ireland trade not enough

There is no doubt the willingness of the EU to accept NI having seamless access to the EU in return for adherence to EU customs and production standards would allow trade to continue as normal on the island of Ireland.

The one-third of Northern Ireland’s milk that comes south for processing and the 400,000 plus lambs could continue the trade that has been in place for years.

Similarly, the 450,000 pigs that go from south to north each year could also work on a business-as-usual principle.

Where the original backstop proposal, which was reheated by Michel Barnier again yesterday, falls down is in the east-west element of Irish trade with the UK.

The proposal would do nothing to preserve the export business for the Irish beef and pigmeat that is sent to the UK each year or the €800m worth of cheddar.

If Britain was free to leave the customs union as Barnier suggests, then the problem for Irish farmers south of the border would be actually worse than in a no-deal situation.

Ireland needs all of the UK in customs union.

If Britain was outside the customs union but NI continued trading as it does now, then the Irish industry south of the border would be carrying lambs and milk from Northern Ireland but be effectively cut off from the rest of the UK across the Irish Sea.

If Britain was outside the customs union and Northern Ireland was inside, the main market for Irish agri food exports would be exposed to whatever whim the UK government decided to pursue.

According to the proposals seen by the Irish Farmers Journal but not published by the UK Government yet, there is a clear sign that in a no-deal Brexit the UK would be prepared to create a significant low-tariff beef quota to enable the current level of imports continue.

Brazil

The problem for Ireland is that such a quota would apply to Brazil, where beef is €2.20/kg, as much as it would to Ireland.

Therefore, Michel Barnier’s tweets may have made the mainstream news media on Friday evening but they offered nothing of worth to Irish farmers who depend on the UK as the main market.

Navigating Global Trade

Hear the latest on Brexit and other trade developments at the Irish Farmers Journal/Grant Thornton Navigating Global Trade conference next Friday 15 March in the RDS.