Forecast for 2018 is expected to reach 1.98m head by the end of the year according to the report, with a total of 1.47m head slaughtered in the first nine months of the year. The outlook going into 2019, based on the number of prime cattle currently on the ground, would suggest that supply in the first half of the year will be similar, if not slightly elevated on 2018 levels.

However, towards the end of 2019, supply may become restricted by the higher mortality suffered among 2018 spring-born calves, particularly dairy male calves that are typically finished within a 16-month time frame, the report outlines.

Furthermore, heifer slaughtering’s have been higher than usual this year which will lead to a reduction in the breeding herd for 2019.

Defra indicate that the total breeding herd declining by over 1.1% with the beef breeding herd declining by 1.9%.

Carcase weights for 2018 have been marginally higher than in 2017, according to the report, which is somewhat surprising given the period of drought during the summer which was expected to impact on animal performance. Prime carcase weights in 2017 averaged around 349kg, with carcases on track to average 350kg for 2018.

Trade

The forecast includes a slight reduction in both import and export volumes.

In the first eight months of 2018 the UK imported around 188,000t of fresh/frozen beef with 71% of this from Ireland, so production of beef in Ireland has an impact on import levels. Irish production is expected to decline in 2019 after higher live exports in 2017 and 2018 which will limit supplies available for slaughter and therefore export.

However, an increase in Polish production and exports could potentially fill this gap. UK exports are forecast to reduce slightly in line with reduced production, particularly in cows, which are a source of manufacturing beef and have recorded a strong trade this year.