In New Zealand, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) was down 2.9% again in the latest auction. Whole milk powder (WMP), the big product to watch, was down even further by 3.8%.

On the positive side, cheddar was up a touch by 1.3%. Volumes traded were small relative to previous trades. The previous auction was down 3.6%, so the fall isn’t as big.

Still no major milk coming out of New Zealand as calving ramps up over coming weeks.

So milk supply is up in the EU, but events in the last week could affect July supply. In the last 10 days, we have had dramatic floods in parts of Europe with tragic consequences. We understand this could have consequences on German milk processing.

The west coast of the US, where there are large milk production units, is burning up, and UK milk supply volumes are falling faster than they have for the last number of years. Irish volumes are tapering off or at least not rising as fast as they were earlier in the year.

UK milk volumes in June were 1295m litres, which is 14.13m and 1.10% more than last year. However, volumes are falling off at a faster rate this year than at any time in the last five years, with a weekly drop of between 8% and 9%.

Although not all of the figures have been confirmed yet, it looks as if EU milk volumes in May will be around 14,100m litres, which would be 280m and up to 2% more than last year. That month was affected by drought. However, compared with more normal May volumes, this year looks like being 1.5% up.

Either way, it would be the highest level since early to mid-2020. If confirmed it could take cumulative volumes to 66,335m litres, which would be on a par with last year:

Meanwhile, in the US, a major drought in California will see some reductions in milk volumes.

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