Global prices continue to jump about, but the direction is firmly upwards, especially on wheat. There is a firmer tone to both futures and physical markets, but there remains the possibility that maize may gain in output. So it is now definitely a case of watch maize.

Our televisions show us the consequences of prolonged drought in many European and Black Sea countries, while some of those to the east have received considerable rainfall which will help maize.

MATIF December wheat futures gained €7.75/t last week to close at €193.25/t on Friday. This closed on Tuesday at €197/t and continued to rise on Wednesday morning.

Most fundamentals are favourable to price, as production estimates continue to fall for wheat. Heat and dryness in the US is fuelling concerns for maize production. The AHDB reports the likelihood of no surplus spring malting barley in the EU in 2018/19. And, in the short term, there is a real issue sourcing alternative feeds.

Oilseed rape prices are moving upwards also, but slowly. European markets anticipate lower yields and production.

Physical prices increased last week and this is reflected in native prices. Spot barley and wheat are now up around €203 to €204/t and pushing up around €208/t for November.

UK delivered prices for wheat were up by over £6/t last week, but ex-farm increases were much more modest, with feed wheat put at £161.20/t and barley at £139.70/t.