International grain prices continued downwards over the past week. Paris MATIF December wheat futures closed down last week at €182.75/t, having been at €190/t at the end of May and even higher at the end of April last. This price closed at €179.75/t on Tuesday night last.

The situation is broadly similar across the Atlantic, with Chicago December futures closing last week at $4.98/bushel (bu), down from $5.336/bu in early June and around $5.60/bu through April and the start of May. In recent days, this price floated either side of $4.95/bu.

Maize prices have weakened also, with November MATIF closing last week at €161.25/t, having been in the mid €170s at the start of the year. This also closed lower on Tuesday at €160.25/t. Chicago December maize prices also weakened this week and are now floating around $3.37/bu, back from around $3.96/bu last January.

Perhaps the main negative market driver last week centred around harvest pressure in the US, where wheat harvesting has been ongoing in places for the past few weeks.

Spring crops uncertainty

The recent AHDB report suggests that the reduced wheat production in the EU and Ukraine is now largely priced into markets, which are now mainly reacting to the prospect of higher global wheat stocks in 2020/21. While dryness remains a concern around the Black Sea, EU and US for the next fortnight, this seems unlikely to impact on winter crops which are in their maturation phase. However, there is potential for concern on spring cereals which still have a lot of growing to do.

Barley prices seem to be narrowing the price gap with wheat, helped by the lower production estimates for Britain, which may decrease pressure to export from there.

While cereal prices remain under pressure, oilseed rape prices continue to firm slightly. November MATIF closed higher last week at €382.75/t and this had increased further to €383/t by close of business last Tuesday. Prices are strengthening across much of the oilseed crop complex.

Native prices

Native prices are a bit weaker this week, following market sentiment. It also reflects the fact that the harvest has begun in Europe and it is only a few weeks away here. Spot price for nearby wheat has drifted below €200/t, with barley in the €165 to €168/t bracket. New crop wheat has dropped into the €188-€189/t bracket but barley is still holding around €170/t.

Earlier this week Glanbia offered €187/t for November wheat and €168/t for barley. This €19/t differential was as high as €27/t back in early May.