At the final heads of government meeting of 2023, the headlines concentrated understandably on the decision to admit Ukraine to the EU. After negotiations are completed and entry conditions are met, and while Hungary blocked financial aid to Ukraine, everyone expects the money to be provided by a mechanism that does not need unanimity among all the member states.

However, in an unusual move, a detailed analysis was provided to the leaders, showing that there was no risk of food shortages in the EU. On paper this is correct, despite the increase in prices of some of the key commodities in 2022. In the analysis, the European Commission gave up-to-date EU self-sufficiency figures for all the main farm products for 2022 and the five-year average.

As can be seen on the graph, the main product in surplus is quite easily skim powder, with every other product of importance to Ireland almost exactly in balance, with a small surplus of between 1% and 10%. The only exception being oilseeds, where this has a 40% deficit. However, these figures ignore the dependence on imports to produce European food.

The most glaring example is the 25m tonnes of soya beans to supply protein for Europe’s animal-based sector. With a new European Parliament and new EU Commission later this year, now is the time for a reassessment of what is a sensible policy, taking into account two new agricultural super producers – Russia and Brazil – on the market, as well as the imminent entry of Ukraine. New analysis and new policies are going to be needed.

It is ironic that the enterprise singled out for special restriction is Irish dairying, which is among the least dependent on imports of starch and protein.