China’s beef import policy matters to Ireland

In the middle of the festive season, China announced a safeguard investigation on global beef imports following a petition by the China Animal Agriculture Association (CAAA) and nine provincial animal agriculture associations.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that the petition alleged a rise in imports of beef products from 20.55% to 30.90% of China’s market between 1 January 2019 and 30 June 2024, claiming serious injury to domestic beef industry.

The USDA goes on to report that the domestic industry in China claims that “under the impact of imported beef, domestic beef and live cattle prices have fallen rapidly, and the current beef price has fallen to the lowest level in nearly five years, and the live cattle price has fallen to the lowest level in nearly 10 years”.

The announcement made by China’s ministry for industry and commerce expects the investigation to conclude within eight months of its commencement on 27 December, but it can be extended if necessary.

Beef production and consumption

China is the third-largest producer of beef in the world after the United States and Brazil.

In 2024, the USDA estimated that it will have produced 7,800 tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE).

Output has been increasing year on year - in 2020 the volume output was 6,720t CWE.

However, beef consumption in China has been growing faster than production - in 2024, the USDA estimates that 11,850t CWEof beef will have been consumed in China, 4m tonnes more than what they produce. This deficit is supplied by imports which have grown dramatically year on year since 2012.

Beef imports

Back in 2012, China imported just over 61,000t product weight (PW), but that increased rapidly over the following decade, reaching 2.7m tonnes PW in 2023.

That is essentially a new market for beef that didn’t exist in 2012 and this growth in demand also coincided with a decade of rapid Brazilian beef expansion.

Up until 2015, they supplied a negligible amount of beef to China, but, in the years since, volumes have expanded rapidly, reaching 1.177m tonnes in 2023.

China has also been an invaluable market outlet for Argentina, which was essentially out of global export markets before a change of government policy in 2015.

It has also proved lucrative for the other major beef exporting countries, including the US, which has been well established in recent years following a trade dispute during the previous Trump presidency.

Ireland had ambitions of being a significant supplier of beef to China, but random BSE cases has meant that Irish exports have been suspended regularly and no significant presence has been built.

Potential policy change and consequences

If China decides to respond to the campaign by domestic producers and the wider industry by restricting imports, it could mean a lot of South American, Australian and New Zealand beef looking for a new market.

Prior to the growth in demand from China, Europe was the key destination for South American beef exports.

As China expanded, Europe became less attractive and volumes declined. However, if China was to import less South American beef, no doubt Europe would again come back into play as an alternative market and, of course, if the Mercosur trade deal was in operation, it would be an even more attractive option than it was before.