When the Irish Farmers Journal reflected on the signing of the withdrawal agreement between the UK and EU in Brussels last Sunday, it said that was the easy part completed. Nothing has happened this week to suggest otherwise.

The UK prime minister (PM) has undertaken a tour of the UK, going beyond MPs to the business community in particular to try to build support from the ground up that will in turn persuade MPs opposed to her deal to come on board.

Despite the efforts and severe warnings from the Bank of England on the implications of a no-deal Brexit, it looks very much like the PM is going to lose the vote in parliament on 11 December.

Uncertainty

If that happens, we will enter a period of uncertainty much greater than we have experienced to date.

It won’t just be the UK that watches this anxiously, but, for Ireland, the consequences of a no-deal Brexit are horrendous, particularly for agriculture.

If she fails in the vote, nobody is sure what happens next.

There is no potential leader that could bring the Conservative party together

The EU have said there is no more discussion and they haven’t been found bluffing to date in negotiations.

The thinking in Westminster is that if she loses the vote by a margin that is sufficiently small, she may try again and ask MPs to vote a second time.

The thinking is that sterling and the stock market would collapse if the agreement was rejected and a number of MPs would change their mind second time round in the national interest.

Market crash?

Of course, markets look ahead and that possibility may already be discounted given the negative vibes on the prospect of the agreement being accepted.

If she goes to parliament a second time and loses then, the feeling is that the PM would have reached the end of the road.

The problem at that point is that there is no potential leader that could bring the Conservative party together so she may still cling on.

What is likely at that point is either a general election or a new referendum - or perhaps both.

Any or all of these would take time and that isn’t something that is available.

The UK could request, despite saying otherwise, an extension of Article 50 and postpone the exit on 29 March.

Granting that request is at the discretion of the EU27, but the feeling is that they would be positive if the request was made.

Would new government work?

Despite what they say, it is most unlikely that Labour could negotiate anything different if they were in government, so it really does seem the withdrawal deal or no deal, with the only obvious fudge an extension of the Brexit departure.

What has been interesting over the past week is the growing acceptance, even from Brexit advocates, of entering a Norway-plus type arrangement.

This would mean staying in the single market and customs union

This would mean staying in the single market and customs union alignment.

That feels more like a long-term future trading relationship on which talks aren’t supposed to start until the UK leaves the EU.

The big question then is how far the EU would travel to address internal UK difficulties.

Referendum last resort

The final proposition then is that the UK government asks the question again in a referendum - do you really want to leave now that we know specifically the terms and implications of not being in the EU and not having a special trade deal.

Politically, many MPs are opposed, but if there is nothing else, then it remains an option for a once and for all result.