Farmers are looking at higher prices for cereals in 2020 as poorer winter wheat plantings could tighten supply. AHDB is quoting the November futures farmer for wheat in 2020 at £155/t, up £13/t on the year, Feed barley is up £17/t to £135/t and malting barley is at £175/t a rise of £50/t.

Meanwhile, after strong oilseed rape prices this harvest, it is believed the price will fall from £318/t to £302/t.

According to AHDB, the area in the UK planted to wheat is down 9%, winter barley is down 12% and rapeseed is down 23%. However, the area planted to spring barley is up 28% and to oats is up 10% . UK wheat output could fall 3.2mt to 13mt and given the continuing rain may be lower still as yield potential falls.

According to SAC’s Julian Bell, the picture is similar in Scotland, with a likely 10,000-15,oooha swing in winter cereals to spring barley.

He said: “Crop gross margins for 2020 currently appear positive for wheat based on current forward contract prices and trend yields. Spring barley returns are more doubtful given the potentially large UK crop in 2020.

“Net farm receipts could fall given the lower winter cereal area and potentially moderate yields.”

So far, the UK has exported 41% of its surplus of barley from the last harvest but just 23% of its wheat surplus.