Yield forecasts are on track to remain above the five year average in the EU, according to the latest MARS crop monitoring report.

However concerns are now turning to the quality of grain in light of recent heavy rain and flooding in parts of Europe.

Much of western Europe experienced average to wet conditions in June to July. Some storm events, followed by hail, caused severe damage to specific areas.

In Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands wet conditions slowed down winter crop harvests, especially winter barley. The impact on barley yields has been negative, but limited.

Southern and southeastern Europe experienced hotter and dry weather, which in turn has hampered yield forecasts for these countries.

Quality concerns

In France, stormy weather is expected to cause losses from lodging, especially in the northeast. The AHDB reports that wet weather at grain filling is expected to cause quality issues in winter cereals.

In Germany, yields look promising, but extreme rain has caused severe crop damage and concerns for grain quality.

In Ukraine and eastern Romania wet conditions into June have caused quality concerns. Specifically, around the spread of diseases and pests.

International issues

This concern on EU winter cereal quality only adds to disquiet on global availability of high protein milling wheat.

Canada and the US are facing issues with hot and dry weather which is expected to cause substantial yield loss to spring wheat crops. US spring wheat production is predicted to be the lowest in 33 years.