New analysis by the European Commission has confirmed what Irish farmers fear – that if Europe cuts back on animal production, livestock production and the associated greenhouse gas emissions will simply migrate to other countries.

Lowering stocking rates across the EU would shift greenhouse gas emissions to other parts of the world, the Commission’s analysis has shown. However, as nitrogen losses to waterways could be reduced by up to 50% in intensive farming “hotspots” and ammonia emissions would drop, other environmental indicators would improve.

Stocking rates

The finding emerged after the European Commission modelled what would happen if stocking rates were lowered to a maximum of 2LU/ha and 1.4LU/ha.

The stocking rates were modelled across a series of 10km-by-10km grids in each EU member state and not at farm-level.

Ireland would see a fall in stock numbers of over 10% under a 2LU/ha limit being imposed on each 100km² patch of land.

Inspired by Netherlands

These scenarios were “inspired by ongoing policy discussions” in the Netherlands and Belgium on reaching compliance with the Nitrates and Habitats Directives, rather than assessing any plans to change the stocking rate rules.

Lower margin enterprises, such as beef and sheep, came up as having potential for the biggest drop in production when the modelling was run.

Beef and sheep production can be expected to drop 15% and 19%, respectively, if all EU localities had to drop to 2LU/ha. Even more significant falls in output were seen in the pig and poultry sectors.

It was estimated that 80% of the emissions savings from these animals would be incurred in non-EU countries.